Let’s take a look at what’s going on in the news, the fed, of course, the charts and see if we can find a silver lining in these prices that are tumbling.
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Let’s dive in first up. Let’s hit the news headlines in the Bahamas to allow citizens to pay taxes with digital assets. We know last year the FTX exchange moved its headquarters to the Bahamas and the CEO SBF attributed the move to the progressive forward thinking bill that would regulate the industry in the country. So, they’re getting more crypto friendly also Saint Kitts and Nevis are accepting Bitcoin cash. If you’re interested in Bitcoin cash across to Australia. Australian authorities lay out guidelines and road maps for crypto industry regulation. Apra set out expectations for regulated entities dealing with crypto; the big one here Oztrack released guidelines for preventing criminal abuse of digital currencies.
The last one the treasury is also moving forward with consultations that could see the industry manage outside the bounds of existing financial regulations. So, they’re coming for crypto this year. We’ll see if it happens after the elections in Australia or if they’re trying they’re not going to get it done before the elections in about four weeks time and so this might roll out into 2023 depending on who is reelected here. All right, first Australian spot Bitcoin ether ETFS to go live next week. We looked at this just the other day but we also got the Ethereum here essentially. It’s an Australian ETF. They’re going to invest directly through the Canadian ETF. So, it sounds like great news I mean at least. People can start getting access to Bitcoin and Ethereum but I’ll just be wary with those volumes. If the volume is coming from the Canadian ETF or the Switzerland-based ETF. Then they try and double up on those volumes saying look at all this volume in Australia. I mean it’s been bought through another ETF so it is what it is on to the big news.
Why is crypto still crashing? We looked at this yesterday and the market is still reacting to the fed’s official suggestion when a fed official suggests a 50 basis point hike markets immediately start trying to price in 75 basis point hikes. So, they’re looking at 50 I don’t think they’re even going to get to 75. Last time they talked about doing 50 they only raised at 25. So, if they’re talking about 50 again maybe they’re only going to raise at 25 because the market is responding. So, ridiculously to this news. It’s only three and a half percent away from that major low in February that was the Russia invaded Ukraine. That was the day that happened. So that’s pretty extreme fear for that day and since that point the market raised or the market rose pretty heavily from there and obviously. We’re on our way back down to that low. So, I’m looking here to see where the market lands after it starts pricing in all of these interest rate rises this is coming up in a meeting in may so about two weeks away. We’ll know a little bit more in a couple of weeks see what happens if the market has actually priced it all in. Then we get a quarter of a percent rise then we’ll probably see what happened last time where the market saw that as good news and will start to rise again. Remember, we’re looking at around 4 500 for that low to come in and it’s important to check these out.
The SP the NASDAQ because crypto is being so affected by what’s going on in the US at the moment. S, that’s pretty much like my main reason why the short-term pricing is moving. I don’t think the movements have too much to do with on-chain analytics or fundamentals or anything like that right now. It’s really being correlated very closely to what’s going on in the US with the fed discussing whatever they need to discuss. So, looking at the NASDAQ, it’s also down 3,5% today but it’s basically 2,5% away from that low so i should just check that it’s 2.6 percent down after yesterday’s further losses of two percent so from that high of yesterday to the week closing the NASDAQ’S lost 6.5 percent and this is kind of going all to plan. It’s all according to the 18.6-year cycle, we’re expecting the tech sector to take more of a hit in this second stage of the cycle and it is basically playing out as expected checking on Google. Google is down 21.6 percent from the high overnight just took out those local lows and has moved to a new lower price Nvidia also took out some local lows. You can basically just run through a lot of these top tech stocks in the us. You’ve got apples still trading closer to their highs but down quite a fairway. You’ve got amazon also a better-positioned stock than what google is at the moment but still it’s just put in a double top. It’s got a lower top and it’s heading back towards these lows of March and January. Coinbase absolutely crushed because it is correlated to Иitcoin and cryptocurrencies, a little bit of a sad story for the people who bought in on the IPO.
Remember, it’s always a super fun time and the top of the market cryptocurrency Bitcoins top price for April which was the first all-time high price – was on that exact day of the listing of Coinbase. You can see the market ran down from 420 bucks currently down to 130 dollars. You can basically go down this list and a lot of them had massive losses in the tech sector. So, it’s not only cryptos which get massive hits the tech sector has been hit very hard over these last six or so months. But for the silver lining now, we looked at this yesterday keeping a very close eye on the 18th of April. I think eventually this low will probably get taken out 38 and a half thousand dollars but while the NASDAQ and the rest of that market just get absolutely clobbered breaking their 18th of April lows. Bitcoin remains resilient, it’s holding up above this low and it is obvious for now that we are finding some support above that 38 and a half thousand dollars now. The weekend is here therefore the NASDAQ is closed and the market really can’t get any sort of direction from what’s going on in the NASDAQ. So, if we are to see a fall from this point, we’ll have to see how the market opens on Monday for the NASDAQ as we’ve seen in the past. These markets can basically trend down and continue in the direction of the trend over the weekend but if the NASDAQ opens up higher on Monday.
Then these tend to shoot straight back up and give back or take back. All of the losses that have occurred in these cryptos on the shorter-term time frames bitcoin is still struggling to get out of the yellow box. Obviously, this is the traded price between 39 and around 41 and a half thousand dollars every time. It gets to one of these extremes: the top or the bottom, we’ve had a small bounce back this time. There hasn’t been so much reaction yet which leads me to think. Maybe, we will come back and test these lower prices around that 38 or 39 and, of course. It’s over the weekend, so maybe it’s not going to be as much action as what we see during the week. While the NASDAQ is open and like I just said a moment ago. I think if we do get this move down, we’ll have to wait and see what happens with the NASDAQ in case that opens up and then we get that little move back into the box for Bitcoin. So over the weekend we’ll probably just have to go with the direction that the market is trending in at this point and that is unfortunately down. However the silver lining for me is that it’s holding above its 38 000 low which is on the 18th of April whereas for the NASDAQ. It has closed below it as for the total cryptocurrency market all of the market caps here it’s also holding above the 18th so we’re still holding above that even though the NASDAQ did dump heavier so that’s at least showing some resilience in the cryptocurrency markets. Hopefully, we get a little bit of a bounce from some of the majors at this point. The ones that I’m looking at are in the D5. The space curve has had a pretty decent hit over the last few months but it’s finding some support at these levels at the uptrend. We can see all the way back from 2020, so it is finding some support at the moment and testing those higher 50 percent levels. So, a nice little close above here around that 2.50 level could see a nice consolidation for a little pump. Convex is another crypto in the D5 space and it did drop reasonably heavy overnight but it closed back above its 18th of April low. So, I’m paying close attention to the 18th.
As you can see this is a pivotal point for many markets. They’re rather showing strength against that low or weakness. If buyers are coming into the market to support the price at that previous low then you would have to say that. It’s finding strength at that price and you’d expect it to go up at least a little bit and if there’s holding above that price then buyers are definitely coming in and supporting the price above that previous low. So, the strength is in those assets which are holding up short term above that 18th of April. So, I’ve got a little conservative entry price here above 32 dollars as that is the next 50 level and potentially if this takes another few more days or few weeks that could then bring it back above the downtrend as well which would then break the 50 percent. It’ll break the downtrend and that would set it up for potentially another little move up near is high. On my watch list as well, it’s not a D5 crypto but it is indirectly related to d5 at this point in time with the launch of USN, potentially coming out soon and getting that 20 per Annum which was similar to what happened with an anchor which has now dropped pretty far. But in terms of this case NIA is still holding up between its 18 and 14 levels but there’s still no breakout. At this point obviously, the silver lining to this is that it is holding up. But I’d be very wary and watch these lows coming in around 1470 to 14 bucks which is the 50 level and then a nice little breakout above that 18 could set us up for another retest of the all-time high.
This article is a transcription of a video made by Jason Pizzino
Original video: https://youtu.be/d5XTVSQorF8