Since the failure of his 100,000 bitcoin prediction for bitcoin last year, anonymous bitcoin analyst Plan B’s credibility within the crypto community has slowly waned, but the former institutional investor always warns that he only gives investment advice. Many people have recounted how they lost money based on his predictions. It is needless to say that between last November and now, plan B has acquired a lot of critics for its efforts. By the way, if you’re unfamiliar with cryptocurrency market, Jet-Bot enables you copy best traders and follow all their deals automatically, using binance trading bots.
On Tuesday, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin expressed how he felt about Plan B’s stock to flow model while agreeing to a tweet describing the model as an epic failure. In his tweet, the Canadian programmer noted that the model and others like it are harmful to investors. We are going to examine Buterin’s tweets on the subject as well as Plan B’s reply in his remarks about his model.
Certain bitcoin price models have been receiving a lot of backlash lately, especially the rainbow price indicator and the popular Stock-to-Flow model. Plan B became known in the crypto community about three years ago when he published an editorial titled “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity” on March 22, 2019. Using the Stock-to-Flow model and the now invalidated floor model, Plan B made himself even more popular with a few accurate predictions during the last bull market.
Last June, the pseudonymous analyst tweeted that bitcoin is below $34,000, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy fud and China’s mining crackdown. There is also a more fundamental reason why we see weakness in June and possibly in July. My worst case scenario for 2021 is August $47,000, September $43,000, October $63,000, November $98,000, and December $135 thousand. Plan B’s predictions for August and September were accurate, while October’s prediction was nearly accurate, unfortunately for investors that placed a heavy bet on his other predictions. The king crypto did not go higher than $69,000 in November before it started a steady decline all year. The king of cryptocurrency has been significantly off the stock flow model prediction.
It was no surprise when ethereum advocate Anthony Cesano called the model an “epic failure” in a tweet. The tweet reads:
Buterin quoted the tweet and wrote, “stock-to-flow is really not looking good. I know it’s in polyga gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that numbers will go up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.”
In another tweet under the original one. Buterin wrote,
Buterin’s criticism did not go unnoticed by PlanB, but soon replied with some criticism of his own:
The former institutional investor also retweeted a twitter user who wrote that ethereum’s ultrasound to economics is entirely based on stock to flow. Shortly afterward, Plan B also clarified that he wasn’t responsible for how people invested since he shares his charts for free. Here is the tweet:
This is just an example of the criticism that Plan B and others who have tried to predict higher prices for bitcoin have been receiving all year, but Plan B still has a lot of supporters going by the number of likes his tweets continue to get. Popular bitcoin influencer Bitcoin Archive also had this to say about Plan B’s work:
In another tweet, PlanB also recommended five bitcoin models for those who still believe in price predictions. Surprisingly, he didn’t describe the Stock-to-Flow model as the best of the lot.
What are your opinions on Plan B, his stock to flow model, and Buterin’s prediction?
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Savvy Finance]
Original video: https://youtu.be/EuJX9i9T3Dw ]