Everyone wants to predict the future, so smart people dig into the data, plot patterns they feel can shed a light on the future price action of an asset. Bitcoin is no exception. We see many tools being created for trying to predict the price of Bitcoin. We’ve had lengthening cycles, stock-to-flow, and even tracking the moon cycles. For a while, the stock-to-flow model was considered the industry standard for Bitcoin price movement, but the 2021/2022 bull run broke it. I must break you. But there is one model that has continued to hold strong. And it’s the one that’s actually built into Bitcoin itself. Get educated on it.
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Let’s get it! The Bitcoin halving cycle is so far the best indicator for where the price of Bitcoin is headed. Just a quick recap before we get into my price predictions, the halving refers to the block reward miners get when they solve the hash for Bitcoin block. The reward started at 50 Bitcoin per block, but it drops every four years. Today, the reward is 6.25 BTC, and then, in 2024, it will be cut in half to 3.125. The halving creates a supply shock that works its way through financial markets and leads to massive bull runs as the market adjusts to the dwindling supply. How much has the halving affected the price of Bitcoin? We’ll take a look back at the previous cycle. Behavior can show us what Bitcoin might be up to. So let’s take a look. The bull run in 2013/2014 was epic, and it was one of the biggest ever for Bitcoin when it comes to percent gain. From the bottom to the first top, Bitcoin ran up almost 2,000% from $13 to its first top of $249 on April 10, 2013. This was the first formation of something similar to a blow-off top, which would happen for real on November 30, 2013. Bitcoin ran up again and topped out at $1,163. This was in the middle between two halvings.
Remember that. Now, let’s get into the data. From there, Bitcoin entered a bear market that lasted several years. This was all during a long windup for the traditional markets. This is a pattern that will repeat even to this day. The price of Bitcoin may fluctuate with the markets, but its bull and bear cycles are not connected to the greater traditional markets. The following bear market was brutal. Bitcoin fell backwards down the stairs, down 86% from its all-time high. Finally, it hit a bottom here on January 14, 2015 at $152. Take another 1,180 days to find another all-time high. In the middle of its bear market, Bitcoin hit its third halving on July 9 of 2016, trimmed the block reward down to 12.5 BTC from 25 Bitcoin per block. It laid the groundwork for another bull run. This one dubbed the ICO season, where projects like Ethereum came onto the scene. Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high on February 23, 2017, reaching $1,193. Now, here’s where we start seeing real patterns emerge. The ICO season bull run lasted 297 days and peaked on December 17, 2017 to reach a new all-time high of $19,666. From there was another 80% drop that took 362 days to play out. All this price action happened during a bull market in TradFi. So, where does this leave us in 2022? The market is bearish for sure.
We’ve seen massive pullbacks over the past few days thanks in part to the faltering economy and to the implosion of the Terra LUNA stablecoin, UST. But even with all this turmoil, Bitcoin is holding true to its cyclical nature. Let’s take a look at the numbers to find out where we are headed. This bull run ended up with a second top of $69K on November 10, 2021. So if we track the previous cycle times to the bottom, you make an educated guess as to where the bottom will be for this bear market. But there’s a bit of a wrinkle in this math. This bull run didn’t get a blow-off top with max euphoria. That’s these inverted V shapes on the charts. 2021 didn’t act the same way. And there are reasons for that. Lots of liquidity, a pandemic, tons of leverage trading and institutional money really bogged down the price action, not to mention Elon Musk tweeting about the environment.
Bitcoin was behind where it should be based on previous cycles, which is $24,453. But the slack in the line was taken up just hours before this recording when Bitcoin wicked down to $25K. In 2014, it took 407 days to go from the top to bottom. 2018, it took slightly less time, 362 days from the top to the bottom. If we average these two dates, 407 and 362, we get 384 days to the bottom of the bear market. That would be November 28, 2022. But if the cycles played out in accordance with the midterm elections, we should bottom out on December 22. I bring up the midterms because that has shown to be a bearish inflection point for Bitcoin and the stock market in general.
There’s a run-up beforehand and then a dump afterwards. You can see on this chart when elections happened and how Bitcoin reacted. It’s not 100% correlated, but there is an obvious pattern here. It brings me to the price. There are two scenarios at work here. Both are based on previous cycle behavior. And at the moment, we don’t have a reason to doubt it. If Bitcoin is ahead of schedule, and we aren’t going to see an 85% correction, then it stands to reason that Bitcoin has found its bottom and will slowly slide backward to $25,500 around November 28. But if we do continue on track and are going to see an 80-85% max pain bear market, then I can see Bitcoin hitting $10,366 on December 22. Since Bitcoin has gotten back on the cycle schedule, I feel like this, unfortunately, at this point, is a very likely scenario. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity though. Make sure to keep your powder dry, and remember, the harder the pullback, the more power is coiled up to get into the next bull run. That’s all I got.
This article is a transcription of a video made by BitBoy Crypto
Original video: https://youtu.be/BwPrzyS7Q5k
