So we are very much seeing another pullback from yesterday’s little pump that we saw but exactly what we were expecting. So no surprises there. I want to look at reasons why we could potentially see a lot more downside coming forward, because I want everyone to be as prepared as possible whether or not you think the market’s going up or down. It’s important to pay attention to the data and the news that’s out there. So we can make a fully rounded decision here in the market. Of course, I’m long-term bullish, but we can make the best out of any situation, so it’s best to know all of the facts.
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Jumping over to the crypto bubbles, we are on essentially 10% across the board. The most coins are down. This is totally expected in this market if the trend is downwards. If we do get those pumps, it’s most likely not going to last.
So this was totally expected yesterday, and days like yesterday are your opportunity to take profit or take money out of the market from risky plays. Those are your decisions to make. I wouldn’t be panicking on days like today. I would be doing it on green days. But that’s my own personal way of doing things, but that’s up to you.
With that said, heading over to Bitcoin, we can see it at $20,800 that we are coming up a little bit from where we went. We were close to the 2200 range. We are below this 200WMA, which normally does indicate a bottom for the market, but of course things are different right now.
Bitcoin has not seen a macroeconomic situation like this before. We don’t know if this is going to hold up, but it isn’t uncommon for us either to stay down at these ranges for around 140 days or one, two, three, or four weeks. We saw it there. That’s not uncommon. So we could be here for a while now. Will this level hold? We’re going to have to wait to find out right now. It’s not looking too good. And like I was saying before, I do see there to be almost no support between where we are right now and $14,000. So if we do start to lose the old all-time highs around $19,300, there seems to be almost no support at all until $14,000. With that said, $14,000 is quite likely on the cards if we do lose those levels of $20,000.
With that said, we do have worrying unchained data when it comes to liquidations at those levels, which could result in a reason why we may go lower, because what I’m seeing in the market, and I’ve been saying this for the last few days, is a war between the whales. People, large entities, whales, people with a lot of money, whatever you want to call them, are seeing blood in the water and they want that. And this is an opportunity to make money. The way you make money with that is if you can create cascading liquidations, you can go short on the market. So if you know there’s a huge liquidation happening at a certain level, you can go short on the market. If you want to try and push the market down, you can hit that level, which will create a liquidation, and then there will be lots of stop losses, take profits, all of that sort of thing happening in a line, which means the price will come down if you are shorting the market at that same point. That is a very profitable thing to be doing now. I think that’s what people are doing.
We have a lot of data to agree with this. This is the Onchain Wizard here on twitter. There is a lot of good information here, but there is a wallet here tagged as “three arrow capital.”
This is very worrying as we are extremely close to that right now at 1074. If that happens, it could create a huge liquidation that continues to liquidate the rest of the market.
We are also concerned that Celsius, which is also adding collateral to their bitcoin position in order to prevent it from being liquidated, will fail. So the same thing is happening there.
We also have this continuing to play out throughout the market. Of course, we also have a Microstrategy with massive loans for their bitcoin position. So these are all very large reasons for us to go lower, and if this is the narrative that’s happening, it is very likely that we do go lower. So plan accordingly to that right now if that means you want to go short on the market.
On top of that, we also have another worry here with Tron stablecoin, which I haven’t been paying attention to too much, but there is a little worry here. They are also trying to defend their USDD peg as we speak, another worrying thing in the market.
Moving on to a little bit of news today, we have the Bank of America’s consumer interest in crypto remains strong. We got a nice little bit of news there for us. We got banking uses 56 times more energy than bitcoin. If that isn’t a use case for bitcoin, I’m not sure what is.
These are just two nice bullish pieces of news that I wanted to show you guys, but we do have other problems, like Russia passing its first reading bill seeking to ban digital assets as a means of payment. Russia is back in the game, trying to ban bitcoin.
We have ethereum addresses in a loss skyrocketing to an all-time high right now. More and more people are losing faith in ethereum, which could portend further capitulation. They just give up and start to sell because they’ve had enough of the market, which is definitely something that we may see if these liquidations come into play again.
We also have South Korean officials investigating tax evasion allegations against Do Kwon. The CEO of good old Luna is now being investigated for tax evasion. We’ve got him being investigated for embezzling money for knowing to potentially hold the wallet that caused the latest pegging event.
All of this sort of stuff is coming out right now. All of this leads to more fear in the market, which is definitely not what we want to see.
And lastly, we had 209 million dollars’ worth of liquidations that happened in the last 24 hours, which isn’t anywhere near as bad as we’ve seen over the last few days, but definitely not good at all. With that said, I do hope that I provided you with some value today.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Conor Kenny]
Original video: https://youtu.be/X-oo26BvTBg ]