Well, that was another crazy night in the world of crypto. So bitcoin took a massive nosedive, the overall cryptocurrency market is dropping again, and things are insane right now. Although this is pretty much exactly what we would have expected, looking at the last bear market, the one in 2018, we could have expected this, so we’re going to go through exactly what I think is happening, why it’s happening, and what I’m doing in this market right now. If you do like crypto and you’re going to stay around for this bear market.
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Now look at these green crypto bubbles. We’ve got green bubbles. What’s going on? I thought the price was down. Don’t let this distraction distract you from what is going on right now. Honestly, yes, these coins are green from where they hit right. They went seriously down. Of course, if we just look at bitcoin, of course, it went seriously down. And it’s had a bounce since then, so that’s happening over here with the crypto bubbles. Things are bouncing from their lows. This isn’t necessarily a good thing, but it is expected that little rallies in these markets are expected. We haven’t broken anything upwards, so I wouldn’t think that this would last very long, but it may potentially, but let’s go through what’s happening first and then we can decide what we’re going to do.
First of all, we have everyone super scared about Celsius. They did it. They stopped withdrawals yesterday, which is something they basically said they would never do. Then they went into their terms of service and found some things that actually now we can just, you know, keep your money. So everyone’s got their money stuck on Celsius, which is a huge panic right now because essentially right now people are thinking that around the $17,000 mark this is for bitcoin. If it does hit there, Celsius will get margin called, and that means that they may be forcefully liquidated if they cannot post more collateral. If they are posting more collateral as they go down, there’s a potential that this won’t happen, but this is probably why they’re freezing their assets. They can use them for the right things. Keep that in mind. This is why the market’s panicking, first of all.
Second of all, of course, we have the Fed, likely to boost interest rates by three quarters of a point this week. This is something they said they wouldn’t do. This is something. They said they wouldn’t do just a few weeks ago, so will this happen or is the market overly fearful right now? We’re going to have to wait to find out very soon in the coming meetings whether or not this happens, but I actually think the market is preparing for something worse than what’s actually going to happen now.
And lastly, of course, we do also have people worried that Microstrategy is going to get margin called. People are worried about this because around $21,000 is the expected amount for the first margin call, but again, this only is if Microstrategy doesn’t post more collateral against their loan. So there’s quite a good thread here that I was reading, and basically, they are continuing to add collateral to their loans. We can see here:
So Michael Saylor isn’t actually scared of this margin call, and again, I think the market is overly fearful of this. These are the main three reasons why the market is incredibly scared. Of course, we have other factors going on in the world, like what’s going on in Europe, but this is a bear market. We are in a bear market right now. Of course, we have been speaking about this. The overall risk to reward of buying in situations like this is so much better than it was when buying in situations like this, and that’s what the majority of people don’t seem to understand.
I was talking about taking profits here. I was talking about taking profits all the way up here, and I can’t time the top or the bottom at all. All I’m trying to do is try and get as close to the top when I’m selling and as close to the bottom when I’m buying. That’s it. People keep calling me crazy recently for the dollar cost averaging into my bitcoin position, and they were calling me crazy for selling some of my positions near the top, and that’s what’s insane in this market right now. I’m here for the next five to ten years. I’ve already been here for five years. I know what happens when the market goes absolutely crazy. I know what it does to me personally and emotionally. I know what will happen. We expected this to happen now. We did take enough profits from what I learned back here by losing pretty much 99% of my bags. No, not even clocks right, but I did take about 25% profit, and I’m happy with that because I did follow my game plan. I was actually burnt quite badly, as you know by UST, so I lost a lot of those stable coins I had ready to buy the dip, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not going to continue to work on my earned income in order to continue to be able to dollar cost average through this bear market.
If we have a look here, let’s just zoom back to Bitcoin back here in 2018. Then we had huge crash down, down to around the $7,000 mark. This was almost the max pain, and this happened very close to the top, very similar to what we are in right now. This could be close to the maximum pain, and only twice after this did we have these other massive drops. So we spent a few months in 2019 at around three and a half thousand, and then at the COVID crash, we did reach $3,500 again. We did reach that again, but when you zoom out and think, hey, if I started buying around here at $7,000, where the price was during the entire bear market. You have started to dollar cost average into the market. Even if you bought the very top of the old all-time high here at $19k, you started the dollar cost average at this extreme fair point and you will continue to do that over the next two years. You would have had a monumental run in bitcoin. Imagine you did the same thing in coins that you had high conviction in, even something like ethereum, absolutely insane gains, and this right here is the reason why I still have so much conviction.
Yes, I do expect there to be more volatility. If we have the same thing that plays out over the next, let’s say two years, we will reach an extreme pain point over the next two years. I do drop down lower, but it’s kind of like a zigzag shape. We zigzag around, and if I take advantage of all of these zigzags, I’m going to come out so much bigger, better, and stronger than where I was at this all-time high, just when we start to make small moves upwards. That’s how I see it and that’s what I’m seeing in this market. Of course, you can do whatever you want. You can head over to Twitter. You can even go down there in the comment section and call me an idiot, but it is an all or nothing game for me. So bitcoin ether goes to zero and I lose everything that I’ve invested in. Remember, this is the only money I can afford to lose, so it goes to zero. If I lose everything that I’ve invested in or it goes absolutely massive, which is what I expect, that’s a 5 or 10x from where we are right now, you know, the smaller side of what I expect. That is a huge return for me in the next, let’s say, 10 years. If we can get to a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand in the next ten years for bitcoin, that is an incredible return. Especially if I can use the next two years to earn as much money as I possibly can in my day-to-day life. I can then move a percentage of that into crypto into other investments like property, stocks, and shares, and I can do that all during bear markets and recessions. I’m going to come out bigger and stronger and more financially stable than I ever was before. That’s how I look at it. Maybe I’m just rambling on and trying to make myself feel better, but hey let’s see what happens in the future.
We’ve got the crypto greed and fear index at an 11 today. Oh and eat today, so even more fearful. have spent a long time in this extreme fearful state. You can see that it’s very rare or almost never happened to this degree before and what happens after every other time. Yes, things can get worse, but if we go against the history of bitcoin. It has only gotten better and one thing I want to look at is the total liquidations of just under a billion dollars. This was over a billion dollars last time I checked out a billion dollars. This means that people are still recklessly losing and recklessly using leverage. You can, of course, short this market. You can long this market. You can do whatever you want in this market. If you do want to do those things. Use 1x leverage, 2x leverage Stay safe. Stay far away from the liquidation price. If that’s something that you see profit in, but don’t use 10x, 20x, or 30x leverage because you can get wrecked so quickly and people are out for blood right now. There are huge whales that are out for blood right now.
We are witnessing the war of the whales. This market is not going anywhere, but over-leveraged entities are. This is what I think. I think that people are hunting for blood right now. There’s blood in the market and people want more of it, so if they start to see a lot of shorts, they’ll push the market down. If they start to see too many losers, they’ll push the market up. Then people get liquidated and that’s where the money will be made right now. Don’t fall into that trap. Stay safe.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Conor Kenny]
Original video: hhttps://youtu.be/5S5btAstFkg ]