‘We have not seen the worst of it yet. You mentioned federal, you mentioned interest rates. Right now, interest rates are one percent. On June 15th, your own paper is going to come out, and they’re probably going to announce another 50 basis point rate hike, so it’s going to go up to 1.5 on June 9th. They’re more than likely going to see the European Central Bank raise interest rates for the first time since 2011. They’re at zero right now. They’re seeing record inflation in the eurozone. This is just getting started.’ – Crypto Jebb.
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Here’s a return visit from Crypto Jebb, a technical and fundamental analyst.
How are you doing, Austin? Thank you so much for having me on. I’m so grateful to be here.
Dude, thank you for joining me in this volatile market. I want to get your take. Just as a reminder though for the folks at home, you’re a technical analyst and a fundamental analyst. What is your background in cryptography?
Well, coming up here in about a month and a half, I will have been in crypto for, uh, five years. I got in on July 31st, 2017. To be exact, I’ve been running a YouTube channel called the Crypto Jbeb YouTube channel since November 16th, 2017. We do technical analysis on big cap cryptos. We do a morning show at 10 a.m. Eastern time every single weekday called “coffee and crypto” where myself and my co-host Tim break down the latest in the technical on-chain and fundamental spaces here in the cryptocurrency space. We talk a lot about the federal reserve, we talk a lot about interest rates and how that impacts bitcoin. We kind of tied geopolitics and mindset and, uh, all of that into how to actually read the market so that you’re not only learning the tools but you’re also learning how to be the person who can properly wield the tools to profit in crypto.
It sounds like you’re the perfect man to talk to them because I have questions.
Okay, I might have answers even if I don’t know all the answers.
Is Bitcoin at its lowest point?
I don’t think so. I don’t think so at all. I think the bottom is going to be $22k and a half thousand dollars, and the reason I think that is because the last three times that we saw major bottoms on bitcoin in 2014, at the end of 2018, early 2019 and at the very beginning of 2020, we bottomed out on something called the 200 weekly simple moving average. At one point, back in 2014, that was sitting at two to three hundred dollars. I know, believe it or not, that was a bottom for bitcoin at one point. The next time we bottomed out on that was at the very end of December 2018. In January of 2019, we bottomed out at three thousand dollars. Then at the bottom, around March or so of 2020, when the uh, the thing that shall not be talked about on YouTube happened, bitcoin bottomed out around four thousand dollars on this exact same moving average. It looks like Bitcoin’s going to bottom out there again. It’s currently sitting at $22,500. I also believe that we’re in a one, two, three, four, five, bitcoin bear market right now. This little bounce that we’ve seen from Lowe’s around $28k to around $26k to where we are right now at time recording around $31k. That could take us up to about $38k in the second corrective wave of that Elliott wave bear market. Then we would have a third primary wave pushing all the way back down to $22,500. That’s just one technical reason why I believe we have a couple dozen based on technicals and fundamentals, but I do believe you’ll see a significantly lower bitcoin over the next six months than you do now.
That’s a good thing because it means that people are going to have great buying opportunities for the greatest solution to one of the biggest problems humanity has ever faced, and that’s the never-ending devaluation of our currency.
So, other than the dollar cost average strategy, which is what I do, you know, put in some bitcoin every two to four weeks whenever it is possible. You’re saying now is not a good time to go all in on Bitcoin because of the macro factors.
I would say that it’s definitely a bull trap. I wouldn’t necessarily go so far as to say it’s not a good time, because if you know, for example, I bought some Cardano down here, but I also bought some Cardano for $1.20. I didn’t necessarily go so far as to say it’s not necessarily go so far as to say it’s not necessarily go so far as to say it’s not a good time because if you know, for example, I didn’t necessarily go so far.
We can be pretty confident in what we’re saying about the future, but we don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t have a delorean, I don’t have a fancy hot tub, and I certainly don’t have a magic eight ball. I can’t tell you for sure what’s going to happen six months from now. I can predict with a lot of likelihood what’s going to happen six months from now, but I’m okay with that purchase at $1.20 on Cardano. And somebody might say, but Jeb is trading at 60 cents right now. You’re crazy. You’re down 50%. I know and I think it’s going to go to $30 by the end of the decade. I’m not worried about it.
I would say the same thing about bitcoin. I wouldn’t necessarily say don’t get into it right now. I would say if you do get into it, understand it might lose half of its value before you start seeing a return on it. If you do buy bitcoin at $31,000, understand that you could see it go down to $22k and lose 30–35% of its value, but if you’re looking at what the low will be in five years from now, people are going to be saying “oh poor you, you got it at $31 instead of $22.” I’m trying to buy it for 300,000 yen. I wouldn’t be too worried about it if you’re going to hold it for five or ten years, but I do agree with the first part of your question. I do believe that this is a bull trap at the moment.
You kind of just touched on some of this. I want to talk about bitcoin towards the end of 2022. Do you see the Fed’s actions? Maybe they ease up on some of those rate hikes towards the end of the year, which will cause bitcoin to go back into that bull territory?
Well here’s the thing. We have seen the supply of the US dollar basically double in the last two years, and so far we’ve maybe seen reported from CPI data about 12% inflation ever since the beginning of that which shall not be named on YouTube. That started on, uh, December 19, moving through quarter one of 2020. Yes, I don’t know if I could say it on your channel. You can’t say the other word. But you can say “pandemic” now. So there you go either way.
Whenever the pandemic started, we saw the money supply in the U.S. nearly double. We didn’t quite get there. The numbers are confusing. It’s hard to find the exact number, but it’s nearly double. We have not seen inflation to match that. A lot of economists will come out and say, “Oh yes, but the supply chain is also something that impacts inflation.” If you double the currency supply, that doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to cut the value of the currency in half because there are a lot of other factors. Well, here’s the problem. None of those other factors are helping the situation. The supply chain is in absolute turmoil. It’s been a disaster ever since the beginning of the pandemic. There are still all kinds of backlogs. Now you have threats that the microprocessing industry could get completely wiped out with other things I can’t talk about on YouTube.
The point is, there are a lot of things going on in the world right now that are very bad for the inflation of the currency that will cause inflation. The rest of the economy isn’t helping with it. It’s hurting it. We’ve only seen 12% or so reported inflation since the beginning of the pandemic when you’ve nearly doubled the supply of the currency, you’ve torpedoed the airline industry, you’ve destroyed most of the economy, you’ve sent out stimulus checks, and you’ve messed up every single industry for oil and gas. I’m talking about not just natural gas. Vehicles powered by gasoline and wood lumber, as well as solar panels. If everything is inflated, you are going to see inflation catch up with money printing. It’s going to take time, though, because of the nature of how large the global supply chain is. It takes many years for inflation to move through the entire supply chain and move around the entire world. It takes several years for the printing that we saw two years ago. We’re not going to see inflation have its full impact until the next five years have passed. This ties back into Bitcoin in this way. We have not seen the worst of it yet.
You mentioned federal… You mentioned interest rates. Right now, interest rates are one percent. On June 15th, Jerome Powell is going to come out and they’re probably going to announce another 50 basis point rate hike, so it’s going to go up to 1.5 on June 9th. They’re more than likely going to see the ECB, the European Central Bank, raise interest rates for the first time since 2011. They’re at zero right now, and they’re seeing record inflation in the eurozone. This is just getting started. You can’t see eight percent inflation in the eurozone. Twelve percent inflation in the United States would double the currency supply and say that we’re done with inflation. Janet Yellen came back and apologized for saying that inflation was transient because it’s not. This is here to stay for several years, folks.
The only place you’re going to be safe is in bitcoin. The problem is short-term when you torpedo the economy. That does prove the use case of bitcoin, but nobody can afford to jump ship. Nobody can afford to get over to the ship of Bitcoin. In 10 years, we’re going to look back and say that this period was the proving ground for cryptocurrency, specifically bitcoin. The problem is that it’s going to take many years for people to get there. Because bitcoin is likely going to have a hard time here in 2022 because so many people are clutching their pearls trying to hold on to what little they have and pay their rent because the economy is getting wrecked. In my opinion, we’ve been in a recession for two years. It just didn’t show because GDP is inflated because of the inflation of the US dollar. People are holding on so tight to what they have. They can’t afford to invest, but eventually they’re not going to have a choice not to, so you’re going to see bitcoin take off like a rocket ship whenever things start to look a little bit better, but it’s probably not going to be this year. I think you’re going to see it trade sideways for the majority of this year. You’ll see a lot of the bullish effects of this on bitcoin moving into the next two to three.
Great segue to my next question. If bitcoin, maybe at the end of this year, turns a little bullish, meaning hey, maybe we bottomed out. Maybe just the vibe, the sentiment in the crypto market is different. Let’s look three or four years down the line to finish the sentence for me. Jeb, Bitcoin will see new all-time highs, when this happens…
Bitcoin will see new all-time highs. When main street, not Wall Street, because Wall Street’s making trillions of dollars right now, figures out how to operate at a profit under this new economy. Right now, most of the industry, most small and medium-sized businesses, and most families in the United States are being eviscerated by high gas prices, rising rents, and rising home prices, and they’re being wrecked as people learn how to live on less. They start to adjust to this new, more expensive economy. They start to have a little bit more money left over and they start realizing that bitcoin is going to be the way that they invest.
It’s a long sentence, probably a run-on. My English teacher probably wouldn’t like me for that, but the point is when they start realizing that bitcoin is the solution. Whenever bitcoin goes down, it goes down for one reason: people forget why bitcoin. Whenever bitcoin goes up, it goes up for one reason: people remember why bitcoin. Bitcoin will hit its all-time high and go to a million dollars plus when enough people realize why Bitcoin was created and why it is the one and only solution to pretty much all the problems that the world is facing right now as far as inflation of the currency is concerned.
Do you think we need another, uh, mass print by the fed, or maybe it will be the having of what could be a catalyst for that realization?
A mass printing by the Fed, believe it or not, probably would skyrocket bitcoin’s price because if they printed a bunch of money, it would probably go out in stimulus checks and a lot of the money printing that happened in March of 2020 was part of what funded some of those checks going out in 2020. That’s part of what funded that big explosive rally. It would end up biting you in the butt about a year later when all of that inflation starts catching up and you see another big stagnant market like what we saw in bitcoin in the last 18 months when people got more cash in their hands. That’s going to be great.
The problem is that if you start printing that much currency again, then you make the problem even worse. It’s not a good idea. You really need to see people getting into bitcoin on their own volition and trying to move over to bitcoin. Luckily, we are seeing that happen through education in the cryptocurrency space.
There is always more to talk about. I want to have you on again. I want to get really specific with altcoins, probably Cardano. What are your thoughts on that? But, final thoughts.
On a fundamental note, be watching interest rates and the federal funds rate, sorry interest rates and inflation rates, because they have a much bigger impact on bitcoin right now than you think they do and they really are running the narrative this year.
Oh yeah, and the end of the year price prediction is higher or lower than $30k.
I think we might be on our way back to the $30s or maybe the $40s. I think we might be on our way back up by the end of the year. I can’t be very confident in that.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Altcoin Daily]
Original video: https://youtu.be/s_wbhXHI4zA?list=TLPQMDcwNjIwMjJ2f8MUwxooeA ]