Today for the Bitcoin price. I was happy hey Bitcoin is bouncing now, we are going back towards or lower than 30 000 US dollars and everyone is asking me where you won? Is your million US on our trade on Bitcoin right now? 35 000 US dollars still in a profit not as much as before going to get liquidated or not. Well, we are going to talk about that. But, more importantly, I want to answer the question here: should I sell Bitcoin right now? And I can tell you one thing. My answer will shock you.
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Let’s talk about Bitcoin and I have one thing. Let me actually start on this one. If you wanna determine whether Bitcoin is gonna go lower or not, whether you shut it, you should sell your Bitcoin or not, we should always zoom out. You can’t answer this question on an hourly or four hourly candle, so what I’m gonna do right now is I wanna show you two price models which I was using in 2017-2018-2009-2020 and then I lost track. It’s an unchained chart, it’s very easy to understand. It actually shows us on the Bitcoin blockchain whales, retail investors. And so on when they are profitable when they are not profitable when they are selling for a profit. When they are selling in a loss and on the biggest scale of things it is showing us when a bull market is over. When a bear market is over and when we are going to reverse towards the upset. So, let’s start on this one here. This is actually let’s start on this one. The net unrealized profit and loss ratio the gray line is the Bitcoin price and this colored line here is actually the net unrealized profit and loss. So, whenever it is blue or green or yellow. People are more or less profitable. They are selling Bitcoin in a profitable price when we’re going into the orange area. We are coming close to the break-even point – you see that. This is happening in 2014-2018 and, of course, during the sea dump in the black Thursday, right? It’s happening time and time again and actually right now. We are in that stage again close to the break-even area. However, the bear market only ends and this is. Let me quickly go back here. By the way, I am in the middle of a really beautiful Ibiza town. The bear market only ends every single freaking time.
The moment we are going down into the non-profitable area when people on average are losing money when the weekend. And the strong hands are shaken out, so now this is not happening we are not even close to this level. Let me go here to the extended bear market capitalization on the right-hand side. We are not even close to that level, so in accordance to that, chart we should see one last breakdown one last big sell-off. Let’s take more into consideration the Maya multiple. This is the 200-day moving average actually 0.6 times the 200-day moving average right now being located at 25 700 US dollars. What you can see here is that every single bear market is following the same trajectory. Every time we have the first dump touching the 200-day moving average and then the second dumb touching the 200-day moving average again. Two dumps per cycle 2014 A B, 2018 A B, 2020 A B. Well, on the right-hand side on the top right corner 2021-22 A and just right now. We had another dip at B so you might as well say. Let me quickly go back you might as well say. This is it we got both dumps. Well, let’s take a closer look because what you can see here is that in B usually, we are dipping a little bit below.
We did not do that yet so you might say and this is a little bit speculative yes we are there we are almost there. But, there is one last dump missing both of these charts are actually suggesting that both of these charts are telling us the worst is over time wise soon the bear market is going to end but maybe there’s one last one last step towards the downside one last little piece of shakeout left and now the question is should I sell my Bitcoin now or not let me answer you one thing so my long time holding Bitcoin I’m not gonna touch them and this will stay like this my long position. I am not touching it as well, you can see it right here and would I open a new long position right now? No, in accordance with that. What we are seeing in these charts and the charts I’m usually showing you this is a little bit of a different video if you like this of course like the video in accordance to that.
We shouldn’t open high leverage trades right now. It’s just a very risky situation and the risk of one last shakeout is there. However, what we can see is that the worst is over by far and that if we are seeing one last move towards the downside. It’s gonna be the only one selling your Bitcoin right now is like selling it in each and every of these B circles. If you sold it there you just had to wait a little bit and you were profitable again without selling so selling Bitcoin within b is actually every single time a big mistake. So, my answer is no. I’m not gonna sell it. And even if we are gonna go lower, I’m not gonna regret it, where we are right now with the high degree of certainty is almost rock bottom. This is why I’m holding my Bitcoin, this is why I’m even holding open my long position. But, I’m very cautious with new positions.
This article is a transcription of a video made by MMCrypto
Original video: https://youtu.be/0yngwOyNeiM
