‘I don’t see any particular reasons why we couldn’t be at the bottom. I’m not trying to say that we definitely are at the bottom, but I think the unwinding that had to happen has happened.’ – Sam Bankman-Fried.
We’ll take a look at what the charts are telling us, both the positive and the negative. We’ll look at both options for bitcoin as well as recent altcoin news, what’s happening in the metaverse, and much more. And let’s also look at some additional possibilities, such as Jet-Bot. The annual percentage yield (APY) ranges from 200 to 2,000%. To get your 3-day trial access, create an account by clicking on it above. You don’t need to know a lot about crypto market; just invest your money to the Binance trading bots and receive notifications via Telegram when you’ll get your income.
Sam Bankman-Fried: Bitcoin Price Has Bottomed
My only gripe with this statement from SBF is that he does come off as a little wishy-washy by the end of the interview. He says ‘Yes, I believe we’ve bottomed or we’re close’, but then he immediately says ‘You know, maybe the opposite is true’. Well, either way, we’ll read this, but then we’ll use this to actually look at the charts and talk about both options:
‘I don’t see any particular reasons why we couldn’t be at the bottom. I’m not trying to say that we definitely are at the bottom, but I think the unwinding that had to happen has happened. I think that, like, if you saw a bit of a reversal in risk asset pricing in general right now, I think crook would just go along with that and I think that, like, there’s nothing that is theoretically stopping tomorrow from being the day that the recovery starts in earnest.
No, of course, that’s assuming that, for some reason, good things will happen tomorrow, right. If, instead, bad things happen tomorrow, then things will go down even more. I’m not even trying to make an asymmetrical statement right now between the upside and downside. I think I’m almost just trying to not make an asymmetric statement and just saying like I don’t see a particular reason that it needs to be downside weighted right now in the short term. I think it could go either way and I think that, you know, I don’t know that we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. I think the shoes have dropped and, you know, we’re sort of in a let’s see what happens with the world type situation, but you know, I don’t feel totally confident that this is not financial advice.’
Okay, what do you think? Like I said, sort of wishy-washy, he says both options are possible, obviously, but this is my takeaway. He’s saying that so many people are in a bear market mindset, thinking that because we’ve gone so low because we’ve seen all these collapses, that we’re going to continue seeing destruction in the crypto market like we’ve seen, but Sam’s point is that unless we get new information, something horrible will happen tomorrow. There may be an escalation in the war in Ukraine. Maybe the Fed comes out with an emergency meeting and makes a declaration. No one was expecting it.
Unless we get new information that’s negative, the worst is probably behind us, meaning we’re not going to see another stablecoin as big as Luna’s USD collapse. We’re not going to see another hedge fund as big as 3AC declare bankruptcy, and the three biggest crypto lenders, which would be Celsius, BlockFi, and Voyager, have already laid their cards on the table. Yes, a contagion effect is real. Yes, those major companies are affected.
Many other companies, especially if the lending and the borrowing is on other entities’ balance sheets, are very possible, but FSB’s point is that it’s not going to be as big as what we’ve already seen. If we get another piece of negative news in a week, you know, a big piece of macro news, the worst of the sell-side pressure is probably over. Let’s dig into this because, while nobody can see the future, I’m not a financial advisor, but we can check out some charts and see what they say.
Crypto vs Internet Adoption
So first off, a big fundamental chart, and I have shared with you things like this before. When in doubt, zoom out and think big picture: Internet versus crypto adoption. Do people realize this? So here is the chart showing the total users in the millions:
Green is for the internet, and blue is for cryptography. The Internet started from 1990 to 2000, so the rise of the Internet compared to the rise of crypto shows total users from 2014 to up to 2024. Although we’re in 2022 now, what do you notice?
Cryptocurrency right now has the exact same users as the Internet did back in 1998. So what this means to you is that even though the price of any crypto fluctuates heavily day-to-day, actually incredibly volatile even month to month, the majority of the world isn’t even in crypto yet, we’re at the exact same level as the Internet in 1998.
Top TA Expert Also Calls For Bitcoin Bottom
For the bullish case, before we talk about the bearish case, because, again, anything is possible. Even Tuur Demeester an expert, who I really respect, is calling for this bottom and adding it to his list of previous successful bottom calls in the past. Now he flat out says,
Here is that chart we can see back in October 2015, which he called capitulation; also back at the end of 2018 capitulation; and also during the 2020 pandemic crash capitulation. He tweeted two weeks ago that bitcoin had dropped 73% from its all-time high in 2022. Based on how I feel in my body right now, I’d say this is bitcoin capitulation.
So obviously, there’s nothing technical about feelings. I wouldn’t make a trade based on this. But what this means to me as a bitcoin investor is a great time to start, if you haven’t already, dialing our cost averaging in to bitcoin DCA in the bear markets and take profits during the bull markets.
What is DXY? Does DXY affect Bitcoin? (Bear Case)
What about the other side of bitcoin copy trading? What about the bear case?
Essentially, what he’s basing all this on is the strength of the USD index, which as seen here continues to go up, as well as the rejection of bitcoin at a major resistance level, despite a minor pump in the last week and a half.
Let’s head up to crypto trading view and we’ll go to the live DXY chart and look at what we’re dealing with. Because even though the US dollar is so much weaker in purchasing power compared to itself last year, two years ago, 10 years ago, etc., when you compare the US dollar to other major nation-state currencies like the euro, the yen, I believe, etc., when you compare it to that basket, because the Fed is raising rates. It continues to get stronger in the short term in comparison to that basket. And what this means to you is that people want to hold more cash. People want to take their money out of the stock market, out of bitcoin, out of crypto, etc. and keep it in the USD because the strength of the USD is going up.
We’ve seen this continue. We can expect all their other asset classes to either stay the same or go down. We’ve seen this time and time and time again. For example, in the 2016 and 2017 run up. It’s not always perfect, but it’s always a good metric to check back in with, so the point is here from this chart, although we could correct a little bit in the DXY in the short term until we see a trend change, which probably won’t be until the fed stops raising rates. There’s no reason to be that bullish. You know, go all in right now. Although we may break resistance and see a bounce, we are still looking at these other macro indicators.
I will say this for me, relating this back to the Sam Bankman free clip, is that this is a potential bottom. I believe metrics like this are sort of lagging indicators, meaning we won’t see until after it’s already happened and then it’ll be obvious in that time that, oh yeah, bitcoin did start going up after we’d already flipped.
My Crypto Investing Plan for 2022
This means to me that we’re never going to be able to time the exact bottoms for me. That’s why you want to be heavy in bitcoin in the bear markets and go more into alts after confirmed trend trade changes, after confirmed bull markets. I still think no matter if bitcoin grinds down, grinds sideways, maybe even grinds up throughout the rest of this year, dominance is going to increase at least to 50%, if not 55%. It got all the way up last cycle, peaking at around 70%, I believe, and we are seeing diminishing returns with this. I don’t think we’ll get back that high, but 50-55% is not out of the question.
Anyway, that’s just my strategy, that’s just what I’m doing. You do your own research, make your own opinions. Nobody can see the future. Literally anything can happen with crypto.
Otherside Metaverse Completes ‘Stress Test’
Hey, next up, I thought this was cool. The @OthersideMeta, meaning the Bored Ape Yacht Club’s other side metaverse, has completed its first load test supporting over 2,500+ concurrent users in full 3D motion.
Pretty cool. Honestly looks like a party, looks fun.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Altcoin Daily]
Original video: https://youtu.be/de7zQyQAFRg]
