Max Keiser: “Bitcoin Price Predictions Are Useless”

‘Well, adoption is definitely tied to understanding Bitcoin, and we know that the more you learn about Bitcoin, the more of a maximalist you become. Nobody who learns about Bitcoin fails to become a maximalist. Only people who really don’t take the time to learn about it are left in the camp of a no-conner or a skeptic.’ 

As of now, Bitcoin is currently trading at $21,129, up 2.8% in the past seven days. Although the recovery is a ways away from its all-time high or even the beginning of the year, the price showing green in the past seven-day average is a small victory. As of now, $21,129 is a far cry from the 200k price once predicted by OG Bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser, but now he’s changing his tune about giving price predictions. In an interview with Anthony Pompeii, Kaiser admitted that the accuracy of Bitcoin price predictions is damn near impossible now, but it doesn’t matter. Max explains that anyone who holds Bitcoin for 3-5 years is in the black. This is an encouraging sentiment for those who are down here to date.

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‘So in the US, which has the US dollar and has a much different culture and the financial markets are in a much different place, this is a bigger problem to get through to people who are bombarded with so many things happening in the financial space and the way that that’s changing. You know, I look at how, for example, gambling has become legalized with platforms that we didn’t really have even a few years ago, but if you look around the world, places like El Salvador, the global South Place of Africa, The need for Bitcoin is so great that the learning curve is very fast. They just get it. There’s a need for it, and that’s where you’re going to see the growth. You know, Bitcoin is really very much going to be the global south making a move on the global north. You’re going to see the changing of the guard. The central banks, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, are going to be usurped. They’re going to be overtaken by this Bitcoin revolution, and it’s going to come from these other countries.

It’s not going to be led by the United States. It’s unconscionable that Gary Gensler and the Sec would allow this to keep going without having a spot ETF in the marketplace and by allowing things like a futuristic Bitcoin ETF to exist and the futures-based ETF products to be notoriously horrible. They almost never work, and they’re not suitable for retail. They’re not even suitable for institutions. They’re not suitable for anybody, and yet somehow these things have gotten into the marketplace. Other countries have spot ETFs. Their argument that there’s no good price discovery in Bitcoin is fallacious. It’s false and easily disproved, and so again, you know when it comes to the Sec. It’s really hard to understand who they’re working for. Are they working for open and transparent markets on behalf of investors, or is there some other agenda going on? I cannot, for the life of me, understand their reasoning behind this.

It seems to me to be some element of corruption here going on. Obviously, a lot of people don’t want Bitcoin to succeed because it challenges them and the banking system. What I mean is that what’s going on is a conflict of interest because it makes no sense. I’m an expert in this area, having invented a virtual currency in 1996 and patenting a virtual currency in market making and securities. I mean, I am one of the foremost experts in this in the world and I’ve looked at Gary Gensler’s reasoning on this and it doesn’t add up and, in conjunction with the other decisions it seems he’s made, as we’ve said, failing to enforce some of these obvious scams, I mean, I really question this guy’s integrity. People always, of course, ask me, you, and others for price predictions, and it’s, um, it’s an incredibly volatile asset. So it really is incredibly difficult to make a price prediction other than just that one. Other than to say that what I’ve been saying for 11 years, I can tell you the direction of Bitcoin. It’s up. You know, if you hold it for three or maybe three and a half years, then anyone who’s held it for three and a half years or four years is in the black right. So if you’ve got a time frame, which is not a long time frame, three and a half to four years, you’re going to be in the black, but I think that would be the main difference. You know, in this environment, when I was at Bitcoin Miami 22, the difference between that conferences. The conference from 10 years ago was the quality of the suits, right? So the people on stage are wearing $3,000 suits. And if you go back 11 years ago, people would show up and wear torn t-shirts, and there were coders, and you know, they rarely came out of their basement, but it’s the same kind of struggle to come to terms with this emerging asset class, and in a lot of ways. It’s the same; you just have a higher grade of speculator. You have; of course, the amount of money that’s been flooding the system has increased every year for many years now. I mean, we got the central bank’s decision within the last six months to raise rates and really put an end to a 40-year bull market in the bond market.

For example, this is the first time Bitcoin has faced a rising interest rate environment, which on the Macro side causes a huge shift in the funds. You see, for example, something like the Russian ruble is the strongest performing currency in the world in 2022 because it’s commodity-based. I think starting in February with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we saw the end of a 40-year bull market in bonds and financialization and the beginning of a secular inflationary move in global markets. That’ll be tied to commodities. You know, commodities were not a big factor for 40 years. It was financialization. Interests rates extend and pretend just create more bonds lower the coupon rate to the maturity.

That’s the way the world worked for 40 years, and now we’re in a new world where suddenly the price of things like energy and food cannot be hidden anymore. It’s actually hitting people’s bottom lines, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. That’s a secular shift in the inflation in the economies around the globe that’s going to be with us for years, not a few months. And so that’s something that is new for Bitcoin, and ultimately it’s going to do well in that environment because as people begin to understand that the financialized world is crumbling, having Bitcoin is a risky investment. It’s not a risk on, it’s a risk off. This is where you put your safe haven cash. It’s hard to make that case with volatility the way it is, but when you have something for all the other reasons it’s unconfiscatable, insensible, immutable, you know it makes sense. It makes a lot of sense for a billion or two billion people out there that have been unbanked. That’s where the growth’s going to come. That’s where the adoption is happening. So those are the changes, some differences’.

 What do you think of Max’s comments here? Do you think Bitcoin will break its all-time high in the next three to five years?

[This article is a transcription of a video made by Only The SAVVY]

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