What’s happening right now? We are taking a look at the Bitcoin price on the four hourly. We are getting this reaction from this 32 000 range that we have been talking about since we were trading at this 29 000 area. Now you want to know, is it time too long? Is it time to short? Where is the price of Bitcoin going? Well, I’m going to show you the most important levels and what needs to be confirmed in the price action to know where exactly we could go in the next coming hours and days. We’re also taking a look at this fractal that did happen in December of 2021, very similar price action.

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Let’s dive in here straight into the BTC price because what I want to show you here is that we are getting this reaction from this level. Everybody knows that now what could happen in the next coming hours for bitcoin, well, nobody knows. But, if we do start pumping here in the coming hours and finally we do get rejected from this high that we did create. I am still kind of waiting patiently from this scenario here because we do have this last lower high which is at the 32.6 k levels. This last wick over here that could be touched and then potentially get a rejection. This is the moment that I will be quite bearish from the bitcoin price waiting for that reaction patiently because this might just be a bullish consolidation ready to have that next explosive move. I am very patient to wait for the price action to see what I am going to do to jump in a trade now. What is the most important level? Well, if I zoom out here like I showed you it is 32.6 k level.

Let’s see if we’re going to manage to get that leg up, of course. You could already kind of short this range if you are using a very small position add up to your position. If you get that leg up to 32.6 and start getting that rejection because you might be coming down from these levels. I mean this is always up to the trader all depending on how you’re willing to risk or depending on how you’re willing to trade now. If I take a look at Fibonacci level from this high from the start of the drop of the 4th of May. We were talking about the 50 Fibonacci retracement that hasn’t been reached just yet. It is also to the exact dollar from this high that we did create on the 10th of May. It’s a very important claim that high get rejected at the 32.6 potentially. This is the moment of confirmation that if you do get that kind of price action, you are getting rejected from a very important level. This major wick over here for that kind of liquidity grab also hitting the 50 Fibonacci retracements. We’ve also got this major resistance zone and a lot of wicks from this range. This is why we are getting this reaction from this level if we have another leg up. We do get rejected from the 32.6. In my personal opinion, it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin will be coming back down potentially to 30 000 29 000 and even to lower levels. This is something that we need to analyze in the next coming days, of course. Once we see that kind of price action so that would be the kind of bearish case scenario finally getting rejected from this major range. We need still confirmation, in my personal opinion, to hit the point 50 Fibonacci retracement from this level and the last wick that we did create here to see that rejection see that reaction.

So, let’s talk about the bearish case scenario from now. Let’s talk about what could happen, if the bitcoin price does actually retrace from this range. I just want to talk about the strongest support level that we do have below us. If we are trading at 31.5 while I’m recording here the biggest level is in doubt. In my mind the 30 500 range where we did have many touches here as resistance. As you can see many bouncers have huge opportunities, you are short of all of these levels over here. You were in massive big profits big trades here. As you can see, big major rejections. What happens if we do retest, it is resistance. You can see we did get this rejection reaction from this level as soon as we broke this lower high trend line that we were talking about. We got the reaction here looking for that next leg up. So, if the price of BTC does come down to re-test the thirty thousand six hundred thirty thousand five 500. There could be a little bit of volatility in a couple of weeks. There it is very likely, in my personal opinion, that you should be getting a short-term bounce at least to the 618 from the high to the low here to potentially create a lower high or potentially create a double top all right. This is no trading zone for me all right, if we start pumping from this level. I want to see a reaction from the 618 double top and then potentially enter a short position, of course, again. So then, this is confirming that we are creating that double top that the price action. The balls are getting exhausted and we’re going to go to lower levels till that happens. I will not be extremely bearish, of course, I’m waiting patiently to see what happens in the next coming hours one-two days max in this level.

So, what if we do come down to this range? Like I said it is very possible that we get that balance apart from this resistance range. We can see that we do have a pretty nice spike in volume here. There is a pretty nice spike in volume. It’s not the most, it’s not the biggest range, but it’s already showing you a bit of bullishness from this pump. Also if we take a look at Fibonacci retro levels from the lows here to the highs, you would be hitting that 382 382 is a good level where you could get a short-term bounce. So, it’s the 382 it’s the major level here of resistance that should be turning into support. It’s a good value area high here. As you can see, we’ve got two value area highs from the volume traded from the last 20 to 25 days. We’ve got two here one is at the 32 000 range and one is at the 30 500. As you can see here so that short term bounce is very possible here. Then we need to see if we’re going to create a double top or a slightly lower high for potential continuation to the downside. If this does happen, it will be looking very bearish all right.

Let’s take a look at this fractal. This is super important because the similarities here are quite scary and this could tell us that maybe if we do get this rejection from this level the price of Bitcoin is going to go to much lower levels. So, this is December here in December of 2021. There are some similarities, there are some differences all right. But, we do have a very important level here that we have been talking about to get that reaction from this level. We did get the drop here, as you can see we were creating lower highs back in December here lower highs same similarities on Bitcoin right over here lower highs every single time. What happened is that we did create a pretty strong base here this was at 45 000. This was 13th of December 18th of December of 2021 creating a pretty solid base. Bitcoin was also creating a base here just a few days ago, right at the 28 600 that we’ve been talking about for a long time. So, a descending triangle is usually a kind of a bearish pattern, but I was looking at this range to get a potential bounce all right. We were consolidating, we were having this swing failure pattern. This was a confirmation for me to have that potential bounce on Bitcoin. So, what happened here in December of 2021? We did break out of this trend line and created another resistance range here. A consolidation finally broke from this level.

So, what I want to show you is this major range. We did break the trend line here get a small consolidation from this resistance line and then finally break it. So, the similarities that I am looking at here. Let me just get a little bit of drawing out of the way and show you this major level. The kind of last lower high approximately from the resistance trend line round about this range, where we are getting this consolidation. You did get that reaction finally breaking above and hitting the last lower high range. This is the last low high range, a lot of volatility and a lot of wicks. So, if the price of Bitcoin that we do know that. This is a very strong level on bitcoin, thirty thousand five hundred dollars. We can see how we got rejected and as soon as we came back down to retest this level. We did get that balance, so I mean this doesn’t mean it needs to happen because it happened here. I’m just saying it is a strong level.

Anyway, we have seen the confluence that I’ve just shown you a few minutes ago from the thirty thousand five hundred dollar level. So, if we do come down here. I do think that we are gonna expect a balance because it’s just a strong level. Of course, we are just looking at the probabilities the price could absolutely fall here. Anything can happen at the end of the day. This is why we need to learn how to have good risk management and protect our positions at all cost. This scenario is very possible to get a potential balance as soon as we do get that bounce. If we were to come down to the 30 500 range, it will be very interesting to see how we’re going to react. How that balance is going to react again at this 32 000 range. Are we going to create a lower high? Are we going to create a double top? Are we going to manage to break resistance that will be a critical moment to decide? If it’s going to be good to potentially short the price of Bitcoin, of course. 

This article is a transcription of a video made by Andy Bitcoinsensus

Original video: