‘Isn’t it incredible? I mean, we’ve seen such a collapse from the 65-ish thousand when I when we were doing that live interview in Dubai, which was just awesome. I still remember I was the loneliest man in the room. No one really wanted to talk to me too much there. I kind of had to stand in the corner because I was the only one that was bearish. However, price is always an issue. King charts are always Truth Versus Emotion, and I think we always have to remember that whether you’re a bull or a bear, price and price charts are what’s going to give you the clearest signal. We saw the break of $20,000 just this past weekend, you know, really this past weekend, and the key here is to understand why it broke twenty thousand.’ – Gareth Soloway.
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Bitcoin fell to its lowest price since 2020 on Saturday, falling as low as $17,660. Bitcoin had been in the midst of a correction in the weeks prior to the sell-off, which was sharper than any other this year. Bitcoin has fallen 14% since its all-time high of 67 thousand dollars, falling 13% from top to bottom on Saturday alone. The ongoing bear market has been bitcoin’s most severe since 2018. Bitcoin fell 83% that year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates four quarters in a row; similar events are taking place this year. In 2022, central banks rose interest rates more aggressively than they did in 2018. Massive crypto meltdown is part of a larger market downturn brought on by elevated inflation, rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine, COVID lockdowns and supply chain chaos.
This week, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by seven to five basis points, the largest hike since 1994. The change led to a retreat from all assets. The S&P 500 is also in a bear market and posted its worst week on record since 2020.
The crypto world is reeling from the $60 billion collapse last month of two other major tokens, Terra Luna and Celsius. Those losses have increased doubts about the general stability of digital currency. The chief market analyst at inthemoneystocks.com, Gareth Soloway, addresses the recent crashes in the cryptocurrency market, specifically the Bitcoin space, the reasons behind them, and the possible outcomes. Gareth explains why he believes the Bitcoin crash is not over yet and how the current bitcoin price fall could trigger a sell-off.
Gareth says,
‘A lot of people saying hey, $20,000 is the low, you know, and by the way, they all came on once we got to like $30k. They all piled on the bandwagon. But the bottom line is that when you have everyone calling for a low of $20k, you have a lot of people putting stops just under $20k. It’s the tenancy of a market to run those stops, make people freak out, and make the weak hands exit. Then you finally get a short-term bottom, and I think that’s what we have here on bitcoin.
I want to show you a couple of reasons why I think it’s a bottom, so we’re going to turn over to the charts here:
What you can see here is that we had this collapse from about $40,000 down to about $26,000 or so. Actually, that moved down to fourteen thousand. It’s about $14,000 and was replicated perfectly with a measured move down to about $17,500. So that’s a measured move that gives you a good basis for a low. In addition, if we take a look, we know that the January or the December 2017 high that was a major level, we have now recaptured it after just piercing it briefly. We know that support. Then even one more little tidbit of great technical analysis is that if you take the low from March of 2020, which is the low from COVID, which was the lowest point going back quite a while on bitcoin. It was around four thousand dollars, and if you connect it to this recent low and you drag a parallel line up, you get the two highs from last April as well as November. I think there’s a confluence of technical support right here that signals to me at least a bounce here, probably to $25k to $30k in the cards.
How long is this balance going to take or how long is it going to take to get to 25k?
I think it’ll be faster. I think as we get and stay above $20,000, a lot more people are going to start to say hey, we have a major low in Bitcoin and you’re going to see the bulls come back with a vengeance trying to say okay now we’re going to start heading back up to all-time highs. I think that’ll propel it over the next probably three to six weeks back to $25k to $30k, which again, from seventeen thousand is a low, or Seventeen five percentage-wise that’s massive. If you’re in from $60k or $65k, that doesn’t seem like such a good bounce, but again, in percentage terms, that’s a major move.
Once we get there, unfortunately, I still see more downside. I still think that we will likely head down to probably about $12,000, which is my second price. It’s important to note that I remain a long-term supporter of Bitcoin. In fact, when we broke $20,000 at 2019, I announced that I had started my beginning huddle position. Ever since we were at $65,000, even though I was bearish, I was always saying, “Hey listen, long term I think there’s a huge place in the economy in the world for Bitcoin and I think we’ll get there.” We’ll get to a hundred thousand, five hundred, maybe a million dollars. It’s just you have to flush out all the weak nonsense. “
I think last time we talked, we talked about that Darwinian concept of only the strongest will survive. You just have so much crap in the system, frankly. The idea here is that in the near term, a bounce back to $25k or $30k is likely. The reason $25k is a key level is that it is your low from the Terra Luna collapse, so that is going to be resistance.
Then if you go up, there was a ton of consolidation for about a month that occurred just around $30K. There is going to be major resistance to that. So it’s hard for me to imagine with the NASDAQ, even though I expect bounces there, I still think the NASDAQ is headed a lot lower, at least to the covet highs that the Bitcoin market has bottomed just yet. I still believe we need to wash out more of the weekend in Bitcoin and the cryptos, which will finally give us a big point bottom later this year.
CryptoCrazy asks where he sees Bitcoin two to three years from now?
Yeah, two to three years out, I think we’re back to $65k. So I do think there’s a decent chance that we’re back to $65k within two or three years. If I think this next six months or so is going to be the hardest, then we’ll bottom out and then you’ll probably have another six months of sideways chop. If we look at past cycles on bitcoin, it’s usually that first year down. Then you get a sideways kind of choppy where the Bulls and the Bears are just battling it out for a period of time. And then finally you start to get that move up. I’m still a believer that inflation is going to be a systemic problem, maybe not at 8 or 9%, but at 5%, and I still believe that when the economy really tumbles here, I’m starting to see the signals that eventually the FED will say okay, we have 5 or 4% inflation, but we have 10% unemployment. We now need to print again, which is going to be another positive for Bitcoin. So again, they’re longer term, lots of positives for Bitcoin. I don’t think it’s going away. I don’t think it’s going to zero ever, but ultimately you just have to weather the storm.
You’re essentially assuming that by then, if the Federal Reserve becomes accommodative again, that Bitcoin will still be correlated to macroeconomic forces and be correlated to the stock markets overall. It’s possible that at some point in Bitcoin’s future it will start trading independent of all other variables and basically be a diversifier asset.
Yes, and I do believe that that will eventually happen, but the thesis that I have for the FED being accommodative again is that the economy is going to get so bad that they’re forced to, which may not necessarily make for a new massive bull run in stocks.
I don’t think the S&P or the NASDAQ are going to hit new all-time highs for years. I think we could be in a scenario like the NASDAQ was in 2000, where when you finally dumped out, it took about 15 years to make new all-time highs, but I think Bitcoin will get there a lot sooner because it’s not an economic play right now. If the economy is suffering, if you have this systemic kind of bear market for a long time, that’s bad for stocks but good for Bitcoin because the printing presses will start up again. That would ultimately be a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
The crypto market rebounded on Monday even as sentiments remained wobbly. However, if further optimism prevails, investors fear it may lead to a further meltdown in the New Age asset class. Bitcoin has surpassed the $20,000 mark, while Ethereum has remained above $1,000. The major cryptos have wiped off the gains they incurred in the last five years by borrowing the stable coins.
All the crypto tokens were trading with gains on Monday. Dogecoin increased by about 13%, while Ethereum increased by 12%. Bitcoin, Solana, Avalanche, and Shiba, and you will gain 6 to 8% each. While investors will welcome the rebound, Bitcoin is still 70% below its all-time high, set in November. It’s down 57 year to date. Many have suggested a market bottom could be close, but with so much economic uncertainty remaining, Bitcoin still has more downside potential, especially if Gareth Solway is right again. What do you make of Gareth Solway’s interview? Do you think Bitcoin will fall lower? It’s called a thousand dollars a coin.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Savvy Finance]
Original video: https://youtu.be/XlE3-qS7RIk ]
