First half of 2022, actually my target is this first crash. It’s only the first of the bigger crash over a couple years and will probably bottom around July- mid July. So, we’re in that first crash, so this first wave has begun. I think there’s not a big chance. We’ll see another slight new high. I think stocks are going down and you need to sell on weakness because this is not going to be another correction. People are used to it in the last 30 years. No, this is the beginning of a long-term bear mark.
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Bear market rallies are the strongest rallies because when something finally peaks. People don’t believe it at first. So, it goes down and then people buy the dips because they’ve been taught to do that the whole downturn. So, the rallies are strong but at some point, these rallies are going to be disappointing. I think this will be it, we’ve gone down. We’ll have a rally here and if we go down to new lows in the next month or so I expect them to say July.
People are going to finally say something’s wrong and that we may have really seen a peak in stocks. I’m saying January 4th in the S P 500 was the peak and major markets around the world have been peaking for a whole year from February 2021 to recently. So, this is a normal peak in correction oh everything goes down. No, you don’t see markets peak one after the next. Unless it’s a long-term top it’s the digitization cryptocurrencies are the digitization of all financial assets is that a big deal or not. So, that’s what bitcoin is, perhaps is that d5 or is that bitcoin no it’s d5 but bitcoin I see when it grows and gets more accepted could be the standard that everybody’s talking to this conference about gold coming back means that no gold will never be the standard. It cannot keep up with the global economy, we’re in a digital economy now and bitcoin could become the new standard for the digital economy in the future replacing gold in that function.
I would and I think bitcoin and I’ve tracked this versus the dot-coms. I compare the cryptos to the dot-coms in the late 90s. It wasn’t just a bubble in tech stocks, it was the dot-coms. Amazon was a nothing burger and became the greatest retailer in history so this is gonna crash and I think bitcoin could go down to three to seven thousand and then go to half a million to a million in the next global boom. So, that will be the vibe of a lifetime. But, I wouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole even down 50-60 here all right. I want to break that down a little bit so bitcoin goes down to around three thousand three to seven thousand in the next two years in the global crash of all financial assets. Bitcoin is a new financial asset, it’s like the dot-com. But, ultimately you see bitcoin going to half a million dollars half a million to a million dollars by 2037. What that would be enough for it to overtake gold as a global standard for money when you say global standard.
Do you see fiat currency being pegged to a bitcoin standard? What do you mean by that it could be I mean you have to peg something? What about bitcoin trading bot? Here’s the thing: this crash after the greatest bubble in history when everybody took off the shackles is going to show that you can’t just print money and grow. Everybody’s done it, us is not the worst players here in Europe and Japan or worse when this crashes.
It’s going to say we need a new standard, we need something real. We need something for the digital realm. Gold is not something that I think will grow to three to five thousand in the next boom. Because Indians love gold they like it as jewelry Indians wear, jewelry in places. We can’t even imagine they wear more jewelry compared to their income than anybody I’ve met in the world. So, Indians love gold. But the globe is going to love bitcoin long term. Bitcoin is going to be the new digital standard. I think for money and that’s the standard so other things crypto is innovations in finance. But I think bitcoin will become the global standard. It’s not there yet, it’s not big enough, it’s not widely accepted and I think it’ll crash the most. I think bitcoin like I said four to seven thousand from 69 that’ll crash more than stocks. That’s what I would do if we have this crash I’m predicting for the next two years.
The number one thing I’d buy be bitcoin or Ethereum coming out of it and that’s the next new wave like the dot-coms like amazon were in the 2000-2002 crash and when amazon went from six to 136 in two years and back to six bucks that would have been the buy of your lifetime back in 2002. Things are going up and up and people need to see something’s going wrong to make them at least think twice about high valuation. We’ve never seen real estate that’s overvalued way more or stocks even almost like 1929. But, real estate is the most overvalued in history everywhere you need something to say something’s wrong to get people to think. So, it’s a trigger for this collapse. It will not be the cause of this collapse in financial assets; the millennials are going to kiss the ground when this happens. What I’m saying because real estate will go back down to 2008 so we’re in that first crash so this first wave has begun. First, wave have begun. I think there’s not a big chance. We’ll see another slight new high, I think stocks are going down and you need to sell on weakness because this is not going to be another correction. People are used to it last 30 years up correction.
No. This is the beginning of a long-term bear mark, you can’t go wrong buying real estate own real estate and real estate goes down now. Last time 34 even the great depression 26. This is the biggest decline this will be 40 to 50 real estate. We’ve never seen that before that’ll be a shock. Once you get a bubble it has to deflate and bubbles never deflate slowly. Everybody says we can have a soft landing there is no soft landing anywhere in history to a major bubble. But, it can be deferred a bit and then come down later. So, I don’t see I will not be happy and say people invest again until I see this bubble deflate. I have my targets in stocks in real estate, I have all my targets. If we get to these targets the next few years. I’ll say you can invest for the long term again right now. If you are invested in financial assets you are going to lose a lot of money I think in the next two years. I think the s p 500 brought in is going to go down 86 that’s 670 it’s been up to almost like 4 800 at the top real estate down 40 to 50 percent last time. It was 34 I mean that this is what hits people the most when their home goes down in value.
They’re underwater in their own home and can’t even borrow against their own equity. So, that’s my fault and commodities go down even lower and gold goes to about 900 to 1 000 in the crash and then zooms in the next book. When all of those low targets are met that’s when you’re saying it’s safe to jump back into the water only when things get back to reality, which they are nowhere near so everybody thinks well the fed keeps doing this. We’re in a bubble that’s already, so extended there’s nothing the fed can do except extend this a little longer. The only way to get back to normal is to have a crash, there’s no other way to get there.
This article is a transcription of a video made by Jamie Tree
Original video: https://youtu.be/eTqiCES-rVs