‘Look at how I didn’t chase the breakout. I was never chased. Chasing is like the worst thing you can do. I just sat back and I said, “Okay, if the price wants to come to my level, I’ll buy it, but I’m not chasing it.” And sure enough, look at what it hit.’ – Gareth Soloway.
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Thoughts on Ethereum
Back at it with Gareth Soloway, a 20-year veteran of the stock market in the 1990s, the internet bubble, and cryptocurrency. Gareth, what are your overall thoughts on Ethereum and the market?
Yeah, so Ethereum has had an amazing move. I mean, if you think about where it bottomed out, it kind of bottomed out around $830-835 and it’s now hitting over $1,700. So number one, that’s an amazing move to the upside. I will say it’s hitting some resistance. I’ll show you my chart here:
This is your big level right here. If you see this pivot low and all these little kinds of minor ticks of that and look at price, price is now testing this low again. It’s fractionally above. I want to see where that closes in the near term. If it can get above, you actually do have a little bit more upside.
Again, I would generally say if bitcoin has more upside, Ethereum generally would not. Ethereum has actually led the move, even ahead of bitcoin in this scenario, but my general target is short term. We’re at resistance around $1,700-1,725. If we continue up, I think $2,000 is your next spot, so I can draw a little trend line right in there. I do think that at some point we’re going to see another pullback or dip, very possibly even make new lows on it.
So again I do caution people that this is a bear market right now. Bear market rallies can be very alluring. They try to lure you in. They try to get you to buy at these high levels. I think the reward is already mostly out of this crypto copy trade. I’d be very cautious as, again, you’re almost up 100% off of the lows.
The other thing to kind of keep in mind is that if we get a ridiculously strong move, this also has to be noted from the all-time highs down here, so let’s just say we do take out $2,000. Then I think the maximum upside would be $2,400-2,500.
So the bottom line is that Ethereum is an awesome move. I still would be very nervous about maybe, in a worst case scenario, getting back to the area down, but again, Ethereum has proven itself. So much is built on the Ethereum network that I think on pullbacks, especially if you ever get down here. The normal case for most people is to get really scared, really worried. You want to kind of take that mindset and say, “Remember, if I get like that, that’s usually where you want to buy.”
You could just look at the emotion of it right when we were at the highs on Ethereum and Bitcoin. Everyone wanted to buy. That was the time to sell. So start paying attention to that psychological aspect when everyone else is freaking out. That’s when you want to buy.
By the way, think about when Ethereum bottoms. What was going on? I mean, all of these things were going on that were very scary. I mean, people were getting their money locked up in these firms. However, that was the time to buy, buy fear, and sell greed.
Will Ethereum Crash After The Merge?
In bull markets, you usually want to bet on altcoins outperforming in bear markets, you want to bet on Bitcoin. A big surprise to me in this bear market is that Ethereum is holding its own pretty well. How much do you think the merged I think the big event has to do with this?
I think it’s a big part of it. I think there’s so much excitement building. I think as you see prices going up, what it does is it lures in additional buyers that we’re kind of hesitant about. So you’re seeing a lot more individuals buying in. My guess is this is something to just pay attention to. If Ethereum continues to rally into the merge, look to see if there is a sell the news event. I know that sounds kind of weird, but a lot of times you’ll see big money know that the smaller investors will be pushing it up . Just as it gets to that merge, they get that last buyer push and they’re just dumping into it. You’ll see the price actually come off of that.
By no means that is the worst thing. I believe that if the price rallies into the merger, don’t buy right at the merge, and don’t pay up here. I hope you don’t mind, but one of my favorite aspects for investors to ponder is this: when you go to the mall, let’s say you have to buy a pair of jeans. I go to the mall, and I see a hundred dollar pair of jeans. Okay, they’re nice. I didn’t buy them this time. When I come back next week, they’re priced at $200. I don’t say, “Oh my goodness, I have to buy four pairs of those $200 jeans.” I say I’ll just wait for it to go back on sale right now. I’m not going to pay up.
That mentality is what you have to translate into trading. Think about how traders work. How investors work They see prices going up and they’re like, “Well, now I really have to buy it because it’s more expensive.” Think about it as if you’re going to the store and you’re looking for sales. That’s when you want to buy.
Gareth Soloway’s Ethereum Price Prediction
After we bottom in the next bull run, where do you see a high for Ethereum as a trader, and remind us what your high could be for bitcoin as well.
I think again in the next bull run. You’re talking, you know, probably $150,000 to $200,000. I think for me, the first marker is going to be $100,000 on bitcoin. But I think it can get through that. I think again, if you look at the x times you went from $20,000, which was the last high in 2017, you did $69,000, almost $70,000, so at minimum that’s about three times. I think you can kind of map that same thing out. With the right regulation and big money getting in, it might even be higher than that.
With Ethereum, I’m thinking a minimum of $10,000, maybe even $20,000. I think $20,000 could be in the cards. That’s a longer-term view. But I think I love it. I think this is the new. This is the new frontier and it’s here to stay, just like the internet was. Just to remind people again, the dot-com bubble collapsed. But look, we all use the internet. Our phones are hooked. I mean, it’s everywhere. That’s what crypto is going to be. That’s what the blockchain is going to be. That’s what the blockchain is going to be. it’s just growing.
The last thing I’ll say about that is, you know, a lot of people always ask, “Why is Bitcoin not behaving with money printing and inflation?” Why isn’t it going up? I just say, “Well, remember, it’s people are still discovering what price it should be.” It’s the equivalent of a 13-year old. It started in 2009; it’s 2022. When you think about a 13-year old, you know how rational they are. They’re not crazy, they’re all over the place right now.
That’s what Bitcoin is. It’s trying to figure itself out. It will eventually mature into gold, which is a much more stable asset that does work in verse too or with inflation, or essentially goes up with inflation, but you have to let it mature into that.
Final Thoughts
Really great perspective. Give your final thoughts now.
Oh, my goodness! I think just continue to be careful and remember that the bear markets will be alluring. They will make you think it’s a new bull run. Follow a trend line, breakout line, something that tells you something versus just kind of going along with the hype of the crowd. Just be cautious, in my opinion. Conserving capital is always the way to make more money in the long run. If you try to 10x, 100x, or triple your investment overnight, I’ve seen most people go broke doing that.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Altcoin Daily]
[Original video: https://youtu.be/3x4jwdSqt44]
