In my last Bitcoin video about the bear market, I told you where the bear market was heading, my prediction for when we might see an upturn. In case you missed it, you can click up here to get caught up. Now that I’ve forecasted what the bear market should look like, it’s time to start moving our attention to the next bullish cycle for Bitcoin and where that might take its adoption, price and value in the world economy. Let’s get it!
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The people’s channel Home of the BitSquad The largest and greatest crypto community in all of the Interwebs No channel works harder to keep you in the know about crypto. My name is Ben. And today we’re going to be talking about what the next bull run might look like. The Bitcoin halving cycle theory continues to be the most effective and predictable model for finding bear market bottoms and bull market tops. Basically, the halving is related to the reward miners get for solving a block of new Bitcoin transactions. The reward is cut in half every four years. And this has been the primary catalyst for Bitcoin price jumps. A simple way to understand cycles is three phases. No. 1, the halving event written into the Bitcoin code occurs, and Bitcoin enters a parabolic uptrend for about one and a half years. No. 2, the market tops, and one-year intense bear market begins.
No. 3, market finds a bottom, which is followed up by one and a half years of slow movement back up until the next halving event. Based on the Bitcoin cycle theory, I made my projections for the bear market. The absolute rock bottom for Bitcoin should be $10,366 if we see the 85% correction that seems to be part of the halving cycle. Now, it takes roughly one year after the new all-time high to tumble back down to a new bottom. To be exact, it takes an average of 384 days from top to bottom. So if we do the math, it means Bitcoin should see a bottom between the midterm elections and the end of November in 2022. It’s later this year. Another indicator to look at is 200-week moving average. When this tried and true indicator is crossed on the daily chart, that’s known as a good bottom indicator. Right now, the 200 is showing a bottom of around $22,000.
There’s another interesting theory about a false top that would mean we have bottomed already and are already entering stage three of the halving cycle. But that certainly doesn’t seem to be playing right now. Here’s where the rubber meets the road. The previous bear market floor, you know, the one where we crabbed between a range for what seems like forever– I hate crabs. Where was I? Oh, right. Going from the seafloor full of crabs to fresh all-time highs was 738 days and 777 days respectively in previous cycles. Assuming that our bear market projections are correct and the false top theory is eventually nullified, it puts us at about two years between the bottom and the first fresh all-time high where Bitcoin arrives for the first time to $70,000, give or take a few bucks. Two years from November 28, 2022 is, of course, November 28, 2024. We also know that November has been a precursor to December action in both directions.
For instance, 2022, November began the dump as Bitcoin dropped 7.22% precluding the larger December dump of 18.75%. This is why we’ve seen some of the most memorable Bitcoin moves in December, particularly in the middle of the month. In the 2017 cycle, we saw Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $20,000 on December 17. Then one year later on December 15, 2018, we saw the ultimate bear market bottom at $3,222. And guess when Bitcoin hits next all-time high? The same December middle of the month timeframe. Bitcoin broke its new all-time high of over $20,000 on December 16, 2020. Seeing a pattern here?
It is my opinion that we are going to see the next Bitcoin all-time highs $70,000+ somewhere around December 13, 2024. That’s a Friday, so, of course, BTC would hit a new all-time high on Friday the 13th. A lot of people would kill for that. Trying to figure out how high Bitcoin is heading in the next bull market is quite the difficult task, but we’re up to it. In our next Bitcoin cycle video, I’ll be doing a deep research dive to try and make sense of the suppressed 2021 Bitcoin non-parabolic top, factor in some diminishing returns, a pinch of realism, and an ounce full of Opium to give folks the projections as to just how high we can see Bitcoin go in 2025.
And I know these dates aren’t super sexy because that means, for two years, crypto won’t be nearly as fun or exciting as it was at the peak of crypto mania, when most of you viewers came into crypto. Now, don’t worry. We’re going to be packing the BitSquad with incredible information, analysis and tips on how you can crush it in the bear market. That’s where millionaires are made. We’re in this together. So let’s make the most of this bear market by seeing it for what it really is. A time to sow. Because the patient investor knows parabolic gains don’t happen overnight.
This article is a transcription of a video made by BitBoy Crypto
Original video: https://youtu.be/9r5w-g21cK0
