So, what we’re looking at right now is Chainlink’s price in the past 3 years. This is the exact fractal we saw back in Bitcoin from 2011 to 2015. Afterward, we saw a parabolic bull run for Bitcoin, and could we see the same thing happening for Chainlink? Well, I’m going to go over why I’m bullish on Chainlink during a Bitcoin Bearmarket and where I see the potential of Chainlink going in the next 2-3 years.
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Chainlink Analysis
Chainlink is definitely one of my favorite altcoins. It’s something that I believe in long term and I do intend on holding it long term, but no matter how good the project is fundamentally, if Bitcoin is in a Bearmarket, most coins will follow and be in a bear trend as well. But what’s interesting is that while Bitcoin was in a sideways consolidation or a bear market during this time over here for 420 days, Chainlink made a massive run and made a new all-time high close to $20, making a 1,000% move.
2020 was definitely a memorable moment for Chainlink because it was the only coin that was making a bull run while the rest of the market was in a sideways consolidation.
So, is it possible that history can repeat itself and that while Bitcoin isn’t in a sideways consolidation or a bear market, Chainlink could make a bull run on its own?
That’s why I’m going to be making a case for it and why I’m bullish on Chainlink in the next two to three years. Within Chainlink, when it first came out, we had this kind of sideways consolidation and we had the initial pump. The same thing happened with Bitcoin, where we had it come out first and then we had that initial pump. Then we see Bitcoin and Chainlink play out very similarly in the sense that we get a correction, bounce, correction, bounce, correction, bounce, correction which leads to the next rally like we saw both with Bitcoin and Chainlink corrections consolidation, then the second rally correction, consolidation, second rally and then Chainlink has pretty much just been in a downtrend correction like we saw in Bitcoin back in 2014 to 2015.
So far, Chainlink from the $53 all-time high has made up approximately 90% corrections, and Bitcoin from 2013 to 2015 made an 85% correction. This entire corrective move took around 406 days for Bitcoin and, so far with Chainlink, it took 371 days. Then we saw Bitcoin consolidate for about 300 days before it broke out and continued higher. So, could we see Chainlink bounce anywhere between $7- $10 for the next 300 days before it continues higher? If we grab the bar pattern tool and measure this entire move and then bring it over here and measure it like that, then we can expect Chainlink to break its all-time high in July of 2024. That is in about two years. I know that seems like a really long time away, but this is probably going to be one of the worst case scenarios, but it is still very possible now. Of course, the best case scenario is for Chainlink to make a new all-time high before Bitcoin does, and that would be an indicator that Bitcoin is slowly getting out of a bear market and most likely will make a new all-time high following it, like we saw in 2020.
Now to back this up even more, I’m going to be going over the RSI to show how identical they look on the weekly RSI. The Chainlink hit 90. We had the correction, rally, correction, rally, like a w-shape, same thing with Bitcoin on the weekly. We reached over 90 correction rallies, and then with Chainlink. We have two peaks over here followed by two peaks within Bitcoin, and ever since then, Chainlink has been pretty much in a downtrend in the RSI, creating this descending wedge, which is generally a bullish pattern, like we saw within Bitcoin during this time. So not only are the price behaviors similar, but the RSI is almost identical. That means that we should expect, within Chainlink, to break out, consolidate, and then slowly make our way back up.
You know, Bitcoin from its low at $163 when it made a really friendly. That was about an 85-90% rally. We saw something very similar happen with Chainlink when it hit around the mid-five dollar range and made a relief rally all the way back up to $9.60. That was an 80-cent rally, so far the percentages are very similar.
And Chainlink is number 21 on CoinMarketCap and is up 19.38% on the seven day Versus Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are down 1.8% to 5.8%. So, Chainlink is performing relatively well compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Fundamental
Here’s another chart that shows how Chainlink was outperforming the entire market while Bitcoin was consolidating sideways, but price aside, Chainlink is a strong project. There was a ton of speculation on Chainlink back in 2019 to 2020, but today we can see a lot of projects and a lot of people integrating Chainlink into their systems. There are over 1,353 projects and 1,542 integrations in the Chainlink ecosystem. If you wanted to make a bet on DeFi, then I would say making a bet on Chainlink or Ethereum is the way to go. Every decentralized exchange that ever comes out integrates Chainlinks in one form or another. There are all the categories right there. We have 604 with DeFi, 314 for NFTs, 192 for gaming, and so forth and so on.
Just a couple days ago, Chainlink also came out with news on Chainlink staking their goals, roadmap, and initial implementations. So I’m definitely excited about the future of Chainlink and I will personally be accumulating a little bit more Chainlink during this consolidation period. Chainlink is something that I’m definitely excited about in the upcoming years.
Price targets
If you’re wondering how much Chainlink hit, well, I can’t really give you a price prediction, but I can give you some targets that you can keep an eye out on if you do the Fibonacci extension from the previous top to the low, assuming that this is the low for Chainlink. If Chainlink does go lower, these targets will change. Obviously, the first target that we’re going to want to hit is to break the previous all-time high, following $81,$ 127, $174, and $203 will be getting a full extension now. A $200 Chainlink, I think, is a reasonable price target, because it’s only a 4x from its previous all-time high. Do I think Chainlink could go much higher? I do think so. But I think it really depends on your time frame now.
Buy?
Is it okay to take profits early? And the answer is yes. No one will time the absolute top and absolute bottom right. But there’s a lot of money to be made in the middle. There are two things that people always say: “I wish I had sold earlier” and “I sold too early.” You know, personally for me, I did end up taking profits unchained back in 2020. Why? Because I got in around the two to three dollar range, I did a 3-4 x on my return. I was very happy with that. Not only that, it was just a full extension from this high over here to this low over here and that is where you get a full extension of $16.78.
So I did end up taking profits around there at the time. I felt like a genius because the market was correcting, but what did Chainlink end up doing? Dang, it set a new all-time high of $50. So yes, in hindsight, I did sell too early, but nobody knew that right. I ended up making a profit. I’m very happy with that, and on top of that, guess where Chainlink is at right now. It’s around the 8-dollar range.
But not only that, Chainlink did get a second buy signal, but right now what I’m specifically waiting for is for this trend catcher to turn green to confirm this buy signal along with purple weekly candles. So again, this is a game of patience. You have to wait. I mean, right now, Chainlink is hovering around the low eight-dollar range. The last time we saw that price was in September of 2020, which is approximately 620 days ago. If you had not gone in too quickly during this time and just waited patiently, then yes, you could have gotten the same prices over, here in that same way. If you have a two to three year time horizon with Chainlink and the entire cryptocurrency market, then you’ll definitely be rewarded for your patience. Those that are impatient will get wrecked. Those that are patient and accumulate and have a good strategy will definitely be rewarded in the long run.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Eddie Moon]
Original video: https://youtu.be/T1LXTRf05Yg]
