I think if you’re 30 years old this is the biggest opportunity of your lifetime out of crisis comes opportunity. So, what you’ve done is you’ve cleared out a load of old businesses and the world is changing right now? The equity markets are at all-time record valuations. Sure, emerging markets have done relatively worse. So, maybe they’re relatively more interesting but their expensive bond deals are all-time lows credit all-time low yields. So, you’re not being paid to take risk most of these have a future expected return that’s negative. But then there’s a whole different world out there which is the world of a new financial system being built, which is Bitcoin and Ethereum and D5 and all of this stuff that people are hearing about.
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Jensen Millennials are much more aware of this because GEN Z particularly has lived in Minecraft and all of these things where tokens and digital assets have value. It’s just abnormal for a Baby Boomer to think about that but everybody else is. It is tokens, of course, we live with different currencies in different worlds. it’s not a problem so it’s a small link to Bitcoin which has a future expected value higher than any other asset class in terms of risk-reward. Macro investor Ryle Paul in his latest interview explains why despite the downturn in markets and the increased likelihood of a recession. Why the current investment conditions and business landscape present the opportunity of a lifetime to build substantial wealth.
Raoul also explains why due to GEN Z and millennials and their inevitable accumulation of wealth over the next few decades. Why crypto is a no-brainer trade amongst an increasingly digital-savvy investment cohort? I will cover some of the latest on-chain Ethereum data to see if it backs up Raoul’s investment thesis.
Then if you’re 30 years old and you’ve got ahead of you. The next 30 years of trying to accumulate wealth well firstly. Don’t forget income is worth more than capital because if you have a million dollars and you stick it in the bond market. You’re going to get 10 000 a year. But for the average person to over a couple of years increase their income by 10 000 is not that unachievable. So, it’s like being a millionaire every 10 grand. You have is like being a millionaire in terms of your earning power, so that’s the key thing then after that it looks at the opportunity set in front of you. Let’s say you’re in a good job now. You’re starting to invest and save for the future. What is it well my first thing always for everybody is if you can buy a home now that’s the problem because they’re expensive in most places. I’ll come on to that in a bit but if you can.
So, I was really lucky back in 2000. I was living in a fancy apartment in London that I had a mortgage on etc. and then I had a bonus. I bought a house in Spain which wasn’t very expensive. It was 250 000 which nowadays you can’t buy anything. But it was a six-bedroom house inside a hill near a beach town. The point being is now I’ve got a place to live, I could work a bar job and survive. I’m now super robust, so I can now take the risk that becomes interesting when you’re in a safe place to take risk becomes very attractive. I would urge people to think about that get to that point of safety where you could take risk. Then take risk so what does risk look like well right now the equity markets are all-time record valuations, sure, emerging markets have done relatively worse.
Maybe they’re relatively more interesting, but they’re expensive bond yields are all-time lows credit, all-time low yields. So, you’re not being paid to take risk most of these have a future expected return that’s negative but then there’s a whole different world out there which is the world of a new financial system being built which is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFy and all of this stuff. People are hearing about and Jensen millennials are much more aware of this because Gen Z particularly has lived in Minecraft and all of these things where tokens and digital assets have value. It’s just abnormal for a baby boomer to think about that but everybody else is like, of course. It is tokens because we live with different currencies in different worlds. It’s not a problem so it’s a small link to Bitcoin which has a future expected value higher than any other asset class in terms of risk-reward sure it goes up and down 50-60-70 percent down but it’s upside is 10-50-100x. If you’re young you can afford to take that bet because it can be life-changing. It’s the same kind of bet but better than the Baby Boomers got in 1980. When they were about 30 years old because what did they get when they were 30 years old? They got a stock market at record low valuations and a bond market with record-high yields.
You almost have to be an idiot not to make money. Millennials are faced with something much harder as are Gen Z because property is expensive too. Unless you move the digital economy and particularly covert has shown that we can move anywhere now. So, if you think that you can get a quality of life in Thailand because you’re in Hong Kong. You say I’m not going to hang around in Hong Kong, London any longer. I’m gonna go to Thailand. You can easily run a business from Thailand. So now you’ve got a quality-of-life advantage – you could probably buy a house for pretty cheap. So now you’re safe and secure and now you look at your future potential well bitcoin might be that answer so it’s going to be a new world and that’s good because the millennials and the Gen Z are not going to be following the old rules. Once you realize that you’re liberated. I think if you’re 30 years old this is the biggest opportunity of your lifetime out of crisis comes opportunity. So, what you’ve done is you’ve cleared out a load of old businesses and the world is changing. I noticed this when I went to Japan a couple of years a few years ago. Is it bifurcates between the big brands and the big businesses? Then artisanal stuff and we’ve seen that movement already across the U.S across Europe where people are opening cool bakers or a cool clothing place where they make cool clothing themselves and stuff like that so there is a bifurcation that’s going on and what you’ve just done is cleared out the high street of all of the old that needed to go now. That’s painful and horrible because it’s people’s life savings and their businesses but thinking like you should.
All of that old stuff is gone rents are collapsing I could start a business your probability of success of starting a business in a down cycle is so much higher than starting. When rents are high, you’re competing for everything and it is about doing unique stuff to find your niche. The world used to be Amazon broad but we’re all finding that deep is the other strategy.
Let’s say you like baking. Well, become the best because guess what you will always have a business or you know you are particularly good at a certain thing. That opportunity is there. So, retail is going to be a huge opportunity within this. It’s just different retail don’t sell stuff that everybody else sells unique stuff. We’ve seen it with the rise of farm-to-table eating and food. All of this stuff we’ve seen it with clothing. We’ve seen with jewelry, we’ve seen it with all sorts of things. So, there’s opportunities for creative outlets which you couldn’t do in cities because it’s too expensive. I mean to have a creative idea for a business in New York city or Hong Kong or London. You get marginalized to the kind of other neighborhoods well guess what that’s going to change so yes it’s terrible, and yes it’s going to be lingering ,and yes it’s miserable for many but change is always an opportunity. The largest cohort of people in the world is the Baby Boomers. The Millennials in the US are slightly larger than the baby boomers but elsewhere in the world. Nobody had such a large millennial population so the baby boomers are everything. They hold all the wealth they have all the pensions and they’re all between 60 and 75. They’re hitting retirement age problem is particularly in the US is they have massive overall weight equities and high risk because they never got enough money into their pensions now. When you go into recession equity returns generally go down, we’ve got this weird market right now which is bifurcated a bunch of equities are doing terribly.
The big names are going up well. Guess, what the big names are going up because they’re driven by millennials because they love the stories of tesla or whatever. It is apple but actually banks oil companies, and industrial companies. They’re all doing terribly and that’s partly because the baby boomers are forced to sell equities over time because if you think about it when you stop earning money you need to sell your assets over time to realize the money, to spend the problem is as that goes on and bond yields go. So, low these don’t have enough money to retire on now. If that stock market rolls over again because the economy actually ends up weighing on these high-flying stocks that everybody thinks are bulletproof.
We’ve got a huge problem because you’re going to wipe out the retirement savings at retirement date of people who now can’t earn a new income so that’s a really terrifying situation again for the millennials. you’ve got a bifurcated view here because on one hand, you don’t want your parents to get screwed over by this because it’s going to become your problem. But the other side, I’d like you to sell your expensive houses at much cheaper prices and sell your equities to me at much cheaper valuations. That’s how you should be thinking in this but you’ve got the other emotional side as well. I don’t want to see my parents go through hardship but that’s where we are that’s the situation and that will play out over the next 10 years. So, there is Raul Paul with. Why this is the opportunity of a lifetime especially if you have the majority of your earnings laid out in front of you and with the investment cohort becoming ever increasingly technologically savvy? He makes a very strong case but does the on-chain data back him up..
This article is a transcription of a video made by Jamie Tree
Original video: https://youtu.be/QRlSys_rLLY