Today we’re going to consider the recent interview. Bitcoin will plummet down to 12K. What are experts’ thoughts about it?
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As we know, the largest digital asset, Bitcoin, bottomed out below $18,000 earlier this month. It’s the lowest level since 2020. The fall comes in tandem with trouble in the stock market, but it was exacerbated by pressures unique to the digital space, including the liquidation of leveraged positions and trouble among financial service providers. My question to you is, “Where Do We Go from Here?” I started off by saying you have been right so far, unfortunately for many folks out there regarding the path of Bitcoin.
-So, I mean, we are holding the 1905-2017 high, so if we look at the chart here, we can see that if we zoom all the way back to 2017, we briefly pierced it, which is very normal, because there’s a lot of numbers of stops that put there by investors.
In this kind of mentality, people were buying just above $20,000, so for it to flush below, psychologically, a lot of them will jump out and get scared, and then price usually recovers, so in the very near term, I’m in the camp that we still have a little bit more upside to go. So I could see us bouncing back to 25, 5% or so, maybe even 28%. But I want to caveat that by saying that this is still a bear market. This is still an ice age like you referred to it. The charts are still pointing to overall further downside. You’re right about a lot of the issues that are occurring. The Celsius news, the Terra Luna collapse, all of those is very much like the com bubble bursting in 2000.
I think that’s what crypto is going through right now, and if there’s one thing I remember from that period, which was the very start of my career, is that it didn’t end with just a few blow-ups. You have to see more; you have to get more downside there. You have to get to a point where investors are ready to totally throw their hands up in despair, and while a lot of investors are still, you know, hurting, the average investor, I think, is in the range of $50,000 – $60,000. They’re not fully ready to give up just yet. I know that sounds horrible, but that’s how market bottoms are put in and that is ultimately what I think is going on here, so I do have a target that remains right around 12,000, so I fine-tuned it a little bit. The 12,000 level gives us a measured move.
So, if you take a look here and this is kind of just some cool technical analysis, if you take this move down right here. So from this high down, which was a straight shot, then you had this kind of consolidation pattern, and then if you take this high down here, the measured move means this distance to this distance. That’s the exact distance from here to where the bottom should be put in.
In addition, during its past bear markets, Bitcoin’s price corrected 80% to 85%. If you correct that in this period, you get 12,000 give or take as well. So there’s a lot of confluence of levels at around 12,000, where my next target is, so when we were below 20 000, you saw so much bear market sentiment and the markets tend to wait and kind of lure people back in, so even in this mid area here, when we were back to these highs of 47-48,000, I was hearing, “Oh, we’re going right back to all-time highs, you know.” This is the big breakout. This is all that stuff, and the markets still need to kind of do that here, in my opinion. In which case, they have to move up. You have to start getting that sentiment of hope back, and the markets are evil like that. They’re not literally evil, but they like to get people to start to believe again, and then they crush their dreams, and that’s just the way markets work.
As much as I am a believer that there’s a decent chance of going to 12,000, maybe even lower, right now I don’t know for sure. There’s also a chance. It doesn’t get there. So what I have done here is I basically selected and I said to myself, “How much money am I willing to invest in Bitcoin in this bear market when it gets down to this area or below?” I took that amount. Let’s just say a million dollars, right, and I’ll divide it into six categories, six even amounts, and when we were at 19,000 I took my first one-sixth position, and I bought Bitcoin there, and what I’m going to do is every $2,500 – $3,000 down, I’m going to buy another one-sixth position, eventually accumulating a full six-six position.
So the idea is, yeah, I’ve been around the block enough where I understand that. Sometimes downside targets don’t get fully achieved, and sometimes they overshoot. So I don’t try to pick the exact bottom once we get close. I’ve just started dollar cost averaging in, knowing that my long-term view on bitcoin remains extremely bullish. $65k will be a low target for when this thing takes off in the next few days.
Okay, and I want to get to the good news in a bit, but you said something before that made me think of an interview I saw with Mike Novograss where, you know, a lot of people have come out during this period, especially folks who never liked the crypto space, saying “Look, we told you that it’s been a scam and here it is proof is in the pudding.” Do you agree that Bitcoin is going anywhere?
No, so I totally agree with Mike in that respect. This is actually the crazy thing about it. When you were at $65,000, what did we hear right? We heard the influencers, the Talking Heads. Everyone said, “Oh, it’ll be $100,000 by the end of November 2021, then $500,” and it was ridiculous on that front. And now you’re starting to hear the opposite. Everyone’s saying, “Oh it’s a scam, it’s going to go to zero.” Those are actually contrarian views that as an investor you need to separate from your own emotions, meaning the more I hear that, the more I believe that we are getting closer to a bottom, and basically it just comes back to common sense. Just use your logic. Logic is the most powerful thing in investing. So many people get caught up in emotion instead of making their own decisions, but if you think about how eventually we’re going to slide back into a big recession, the Fed is eventually going to have to print more money. The central banks have already printed tons of money. There’s a general need from a people’s perspective all over the globe for this alternate to fiat currencies that cannot be printed willy-nilly. I mean, all of these factors make us need some sort of digital currency.
Now you could say, “Well, gold could fill that role.” I agree it does, but try, you know, sending gold over countries. I mean, you can’t pick up a bag of gold and just walk through to the airplane and carry it easily. The key to crypto is how easily it can be transferred from country to country, how quickly and how again it doesn’t have that endless printing ability like fiat currency. So I’m in the camp that this is now the beginning of the end of the drop. Yes, it’s going to get uglier, yes it’s going to get harder for a lot of investors, but I do think below $20,000 gets us very close to that bottom. Maybe around 12 or some 12, but in the scheme of things, when you’re talking about a move from $65,000 down, we’re kind of at the tail end right. We’ve already come down to $40, $45, and $50,000.And now we just have to do maybe another ten or five in past cycles, and all we do as technical traders is to look at past cycles. That’s all we have to go by. It usually takes about 12 months for a Bitcoin to bottom out, so that means it puts us kind of later this year, November-is, when a bottom could be in and then there’s usually a six-month period of just ups and downs, kind of making people nervous. The Bulls think they’re going to win, then they get smoked, and then the Bears think it’s going to go lower. They’re wrong as well, so that choppy six-month period. So I’d say by late 2023, you’ll have at least another year of this, probably in the middle to late 2023. I think that’s when the next move up can take place, and I also coincide that with my macro view that by that period, inflation will have come down to 4-5%. But the economy will be really suffering, and it’s likely the FED will then turn on the spigots again and start stimulating to try to get unemployment down, which at that point has probably spiked to 7-10%. They’ll start to get that down by printing money and stimulating the economy.
So watch for the FED to start to do that. I always love saying it and I think this really sinks into people’s minds when you say, okay, Bitcoin is a 13-year old right. So it started in 2009 and here we are in 2022. It’s the equivalent of a 13-year old. I mean, for those of us that have kids, my kids are younger, but I’ve certainly known many 13-year olds. I was one at one point, believe it or not. We weren’t exactly rational. We were very emotional. We had these wild emotional swings up and down, and that’s what Bitcoin’s doing right now. It’s kind of a very young asset and people are still trying to trust it, which makes it very volatile versus gold, which has been around for thousands of years and a big day on gold is like 2%. I mean, like holy cow, gold moved 2% versus Bitcoin, like 20%. So you have to kind of put it in perspective and say, okay, we all want it to mature into this offsetting of inflation and everything like that, but you’ve got to give it time.
It probably needs many, many, many more years before it fully behaves more like that gold-type play in bear markets. It’s harder to raise capital for coins that are still in that kind of establishing themselves phase, so it’s going to be very hard for them to attract capital in this type of environment. So you have to be careful with those in general. I like to stick with kind of the top 20 coins because those are the biggest market caps, and those are the safest. Granted, Terra Luna taught us it wasn’t necessarily all safe though, so you still have to be diversified. I will tell you this is that as I accurate my longer term hold position, like I picked up a little Bitcoin, I am looking to do that to Ethereum as well if it gets down to let’s say 800, so the key is this is that for me in my huddle position, which I’m kind of calling it that, whereas a longer term holding position, I’m really just focusing on Ethereum and Bitcoin.’
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Crypto Diary]
[Original video: https://youtu.be/r_0YFDwquRw]