We’re going to look at the whale games going on in the market today. How they have played out in the past gives us a bit of an idea of what can come in the future. We’ll take a look at the short-term analysis for the wow games and also the longer-term analysis.
Let’s break it down into a monthly picture to give us an idea over the course of 2022. What no one else is saying because we do get fed. A lot of Hopium day-in-day out, especially, when the market isn’t feeling the greatest. We have the fear and greed index to tell us what the market is feeling. It often at the moment is coming in around fear or extreme fear with the odd neutral feeling. So, when we’re in this state, especially, as investors in a market that tends to move quite rapidly, we do want to feel good a lot of the time. This is basically what people come to the market for and that’s where we find a lot of new people joining the market only when the market times are good and so we get fed this hopium dream about cryptocurrency. When it turns south, it’s very difficult to stomach.
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What has happened? The fear and greed index. We’re currently reading 27 here. So, 27 out of 100. Now bring this one up because I want to pay attention to it. Looking at this April 2022 and then take some historical data and look back at April 2018. So, this was after that big high came in on Bitcoin. In late 2017 before the market dumped. So, we can see there’s a lot of red and a lot of yellow. The red is obviously extreme fear and that leads up to fear. Then neutral in this yellow zone and, of course, we’re going to degrade in the extreme grid. But you can see the market does spend quite a lot of time in the red and the yellow. There’s not as much time in greed because greed only tends to last so long before. We need to dump it all, recycle, consolidate and move again.
So, let’s take a look at what’s going on in Bitcoin at the moment. So, on the daily chart I’ve posted this on Twitter. So, following up here yesterday, we had that little move-out and a bit of a fake-out to the upper side of the box. I’m saying Bitcoin to get out of the box because it’s tried a couple of times now. We’ve moved across in the last couple of weeks, we had that fake-out to the downside. It’s closed back above which was good. Then we had the move to the upside and now. It’s closed back in the box, so we’ve got some volume coming in at this peak. What we don’t want to see is the market – move down. So, I talked earlier about whale games. Looking at them, they aren’t just played from one extreme to the other.
They’re not just played from buying the low and selling the top – they’re played out on the way down and on the way up. They played out in all sorts of time frames as well. We can see that when it comes to the volume. So, we take a look back here just from the 18th of April. You can see a lot of heavy volume coming in at these lows on this bar. Then the consolidation happens over a period of hours. You get the breakout and then the test to the upside. If we’re going through this test to the upside now with volume at the tops, you can see what happened at the bottom just a few days ago. Once that volume came in that was some stopping volume meaning the whales have been buying up and then they move the market they mark it up to the north. We can see that maybe they’ve tested their highs for now and have since taken some profits.
What tends to happen is the price will get tested again. So, we can come back to the on-chain metrics and come back to fundamentals and all this stuff does look really good. There’s a lot of bullishness around on-chain metrics. The fundamentals of Bitcoin, Ethereum and any other altcoins that are out there. But at the end of the day people want to make profits from the market. They’re not necessarily getting married to each of these cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin and then just holding it for the long term and never touching it, unless of course, it’s Michael Saylor. But the normal case of other whales, they are trading these markets, so you can see it start to play out with the volume and that’s in the short term and this again relates to the longer term as well. So, what’s happening here is they’re just getting a lower top for now, meaning that the price is unable to get marked back up to that previous height. You can see on these other attempts that it only went sideways after it did get marked up consolidated, moved up again on volume right here that’s that went sideways again. Then got a final markup on volume which isn’t a bad thing because we’ve seen it twice before, but this time the sell-off happened much more substantially and broke through this little box right here. That little box was holding up as consolidation before the market was pushed up again marked up this time broken down and has only just got back above that box.
So far it’s a little bit of an indecisive place because it is above that box. But it’s coming back down into it, so what we don’t want to see is a short term – remember – it’s only an hourly chart. So, nothing to be too worried about. But you can just see the games getting played out time and time again. What we don’t want to see is the market getting pushed back down and then consolidating these levels then that span out onto a four-hour chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart, and then, of course, the monthly chart. Now the reason whales just don’t buy at the bottom and sell at the top is that they have much bigger bags than you. So, they need to get liquidity in the market so I’ve got here liquidity and of course fake ads as well. Like we saw just in the last few days. You can see the market just drop into these lows, it gets bought up and then moves up again.
So, they’re also faking each other out to obviously take Bitcoin off the next person or USD whatever they’re trading with. So, they’re working on liquidity as well so in one case they can be trading the market and in the other case, they can be buying for the longer-term game as well. They’ll just look to higher targets for resistance levels like we can see at our 50 points at the moment coming in around 43 400 and then as for longer-term bags, I’ll just look for more significant resistance points where more orders are getting sat in the market. So, dropping back to the daily picture now. So, we can see what just happened in the one hour which is basically from these three bars here plus this little forth one. We can see it playing out on a bigger term time frame. The low’s coming in whales playing the game at the lows moving it up marking it up just to test some of the prices at the highs – it didn’t happen to check that out. Like we just saw a lower high and then the market drops into another low. So, it comes back and tests the low.
So, we’ve got a lot of volumes coming in again. The rinse and repeat market does the same thing and tests higher prices and comes back down. So, we’re kind of getting the picture that happens on the hourlies it happens daily weeklies monthlies so let’s take a look at the monthly chart just looking at the 200 week moving average. This is obviously a longer term time frame and just taking a look at the 200 week. Line is this at the bottom here and where we currently are is of course this line here which is the price line so I want to zoom in on each of these little levels here and just see where they touch at the 200 every time the market has had a peak and then retreated from that peak. We can see that we’ve come close to the 200 and then eventually touched the 200-day moving average and that was from the bull market top in 2013 into that low again from this peak in 2018 ,into the low. We can see in 2018-2019 came very close just about 100 bucks off and then again the same sort of thing happened as well taking another look that was the covered crash low where it stopped basically almost dead on the 200-week moving average. And where are we currently? We’re still about 20 000 away from the 200 week moving average, so is it going to get there?
I don’t think we’re going to drop there overnight to 21 000. But we have to remember that the weekly moving average is dynamic. It’s always going to change. We remain at these higher levels between 30 and 60 000. This moving average will move up, that’s what it’s meant to do. If we are going to come back to test it, then we could expect that the market has a little more time to go at these levels in the best case scenario. While in the worst case scenario, we drop into the 200 week moving average which today currently sits at 21 000. We can see the same sort of pattern happening on the total cryptocurrency market cap. So, this is all of the cryptocurrency market caps by their volume, so the lows in January. Another low in February market has peaked out again in April and now we’ve seen this pull back to around that 50 % level. As we looked, where some money or retail can get trapped is when the market breaks down on strong volume quite quickly, and so this was what we’re looking at just a few weeks ago. As the market broke down from that April first low and the market got trapped, so tied it all together looking at some of these whale games as well.
What we could expect is the market to trend up. After I think it’s probably, so trying this all together, we have a few scenarios that we could expect. If this happens to be a top right now, then, of course, we have to come back and test some of the lower prices. If, however, this isn’t an intermediate top at this point, then we could possibly come up and test some of these lows that have come into the market already. So, we’re going to be on alert for that nice round psychological number of two trillion dollar market cap. As you know over the next few days or weeks depending on where the market drops to next. Does it drop to the 1.8 trillion or do we head our way up to the 2 trillion level? If we do head up to the 2 trillion level then the buyers of crypto at this time where there was a lot of excitement and euphoria going on in late March and early April, that was the Ethereum merge happening, prices were breaking to new highs. People were getting in late on the altcoin season. This could spell a reaction from that point because again. They’re trapped, they don’t want to take any more losses and they want to get out of the market before the market potentially falls again. So, there’s a lot of games going on in the market and that’s the psychology of what’s happening when the prices are getting marked up and marked out. It’s not necessarily based on any particular news headline. It’s based on human emotion. That’s all. The market is made up of and you’ve, probably, heard that a few times before this is just mental emotional games in the market.
If these patterns are happening on Bitcoin. If we zoom out to the monthly chart, So, I’ve had a nice big move up into these highs of April market reacted and we only had a shorter move up to that next high and the reaction’s been quite similar to what we saw previously. However, this rebound is taking quite. Sometimes it’s taking a look much longer than what it did. Last time by this stage we were up, so we’re up 1-3 months since the low in January. This is on Bitcoin we had the low in June, so after three months one two three we had recovered about 50 percent of the move whereas we’ve barely even passed that low that was set in 33 000. We’re only sitting at 41 000, so, in this case, it’s taking a lot longer to bounce back from what we previously saw on top of that zooming out macro term time frame. Here you can see that we’ve just formed a high here, so that was in March now. If this market is to move down then that’s going to form a lower high and we all know what happens when lower highs are formed there’s a probability that doesn’t necessarily mean, it’ll definitely happen that the market turns weak for a little longer which could then spell the market having a bigger correction.
On the other hand, we even just fall slightly and start to stabilize again at the high 20s to low 30 000 range. Remember, all this is tying back to the whale games. The whales are doing the same sort of thing on a short-term time frame, medium-term time frame. In this case, the longer-term timeframe because at the end of the day. It’s all just made up of people all playing their own game everyone is testing each other to see who is chicken first? Who’s chicken last? Who’s going to buy that bitcoin at the lowest price possible before it takes off and then everyone screams back into the market in FOMO. Before then, someone else dumps them and the market reverses back to the downside, basically, just a game of chicken, and whoever has the best eye at this wins. So, in the short term, we want to see Bitcoin get out of this box, reach 43 400 consolidate, break these highs, and get above 52 000 if we can get there. Then I think the bullish whales have a strong case that these were the lows if we can’t get there, then we’ll have to come back and test some of these lower prices, test those high 30s, test those low 30s, and worst-case scenario, we go back and test those high 20s.
This article is a transcription of a video made Jason Pizzino
Original video: https://youtu.be/a-HFoTpcohI