As bitcoin struggles to maintain above the previous old all-time high of 20 000. It looks like we’re setting up a potential breakout on some cryptocurrencies. The trading opportunities that may lie present in this bear market. What price targets we could look for within cryptocurrency and of course where the bitcoin is going to hold this low for the time being now. I’ve got another video coming up on the channel later this week looking at the macro play here.
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Now let’s take a look at bitcoin over the last couple of days. We were looking at the possibility of bitcoin just having a small retreat before we’re going forward for a breakout now. This is what we’re looking at the number of days that the market heads up and why that is so important. So, we don’t purchase those tops. We look for the potential pullback and then confirmation when we look for a trade, so people want to know what’s going on now. What is bitcoin doing well to me? It looks like we’re putting in a local low at the moment based on. What we’re seeing in terms of the move up so what the buyers are doing are the buyers stepping into the market to support the price now and are the sellers just starting to dry up, if we’re looking for a macro play.
You won’t know whether the market has turned from an hourly or a daily chart. It just doesn’t happen like that if the market has turned to the big picture. You need to look at the big plays the monthlies and the weeklies. So, from this point we can start to look at some of the smaller cogs, so we’re getting that turnout that we can then start to head up higher from this point potentially get some trades which could notice anything from these current levels to some resistance levels at about 20 odd or 30 percent. Now, look at the cryptocurrency market as well. Just to give us an idea of some prices some percentage gains to the upside before we hit critical resistance the other thing. We’re looking at yesterday was the number of days up in the market and we saw three days up and that one-day reversal that’s what we were looking for. If you remember we checked back over the history of bitcoin and during the bear markets it had these sort of three to five days up. Of course, there’s going to be someone in two days and some days that are a little longer as well depending on the stages of that market but generally speaking.
We had those few days up and that’s what we were expecting this time. In the bear market if we were dollar-cost averaging in then we would probably wait for the pullback. At least, that’ll give you a slightly better price. You never know, how far down it’s going to go but in this case we’re looking you know towards about 50 percent if that was the top and you can see just where the market has started to pull up there’s no confirmation that we that this is the low at now 1974 but it’s a pretty good uh area considering we’ve gone up three days had a one-day reversal and it’s starting to find support at that 50 level of 19 650 getting ready for potentially another move to the upside to try and test some of these higher levels at 22 and a half 25. Then if we’re lucky get all the way back up to those lower are those higher 20 000 regions now before I go on to more bitcoin updates. We have an exchange for the US users as well here.
I know some people get triggered when it comes to leverage trading. But everyone’s going to use an exchange and what we’ve seen over the past with the likes of Сelsius and block fire and all of these other apps which try to show you that they’re going to be safe investments. They have failed, they have lost people lost people’s investments in those platforms and the exchanges so far have been faring the best now. I still think it’s probably best to keep most of your crypto. If you’re holding longer-term stuff maybe stables maybe bitcoin or ETH in a hardware wallet. But if you’re looking to trade. Then, personally, I like to spread the risk out over multiple exchanges just in case one of the exchanges decides to pause withdrawals just like we saw with Celsius. If I take a couple of these away and then draw a straight line and we just pick up and move this line here to the next shoulder. We can get that and it doesn’t necessarily matter exactly. We’re not going to get an exact target for it.
You can get it from wherever the market breaks the neckline. We’re looking somewhere close towards this 50 percent market to 25 000 for bitcoin, so that’s why I would then ladder this analysis in with the cryptocurrency analysis. We take a look at a total of three moves to the upside. If bitcoin started to find some resistance then potentially, we’re going to find some resistance for the cryptocurrency market as well. Looking to the upside in terms of a percentage from the low here to the first resistance level which is looking like where the market wants to get to that’s only about a 23 percent. But if we can break through that and then move towards 50 percent that gives us an upside of about 80 percent from the low, so if you’re taking any trades for cryptos in amongst this region from this current low of about 320 billion up to approximately 580 billion. Just ensure you take a look at where the total market cap currently is because that would then show up potential resistance for the overall market which then you could then find the market falling now why am I taking 80 and seeing. If it breaks through this support zone come back up here which was a previous support zone before the market took a significant dive past 580. Well, lots of reasons actually you’ve got a major 50 level here from the top to the cycle low so that’s a 50 at about 580 that you can see here the other 50 level which is almost dead on is this one right here and that’s from the top to the bottom. This is before the market broke down into that low 320 billion up to 840 billion halfway point five eighty billion again, so beautiful halfway point here takes it off log. You can see how equal that is just there, so there’s another reason for that eighty percent. We just saw.
Let’s take a look at what’s happened in the past as well so go back to this previous cycle of market tanking. we do Wsee quite significant bounces and bounces within a bear market that are more tradable than other bouncers like these bounces here in September and August and maybe even from October. You can see that they’re quite small and, obviously, you don’t know that at the time. You’re not sure whether this will go further than the others. But you can see that these were 50 so there’s still something that’s slightly tradable in there low to the high 66 percent but this is the big one here that we’re all looking for that’s the sort of bounce that we want to see that went up 143 percent so we’re only looking for about an 80 bounce from that low so there’s a 143 and the other couple of bounces early on in that bear market there’s 117. Now in this bear market, we haven’t seen too many significant bounces we saw 43 from the first one. We saw another 35 we saw in February and March the one that everyone wanted to get on board which really wasn’t that much and I do have videos on the channel that said a reason why I wasn’t interested in trading that bounce only 44. The reason is that there’s not enough upside in my opinion. Of course, from what I can see from the charts not enough upside for the potential to the downside, and that has of course proven itself correct over time now in terms of this.
We have been down for a lot of weeks. You can see a lot of red there, a lot of red and the highs are basically getting lower with the very minor exception here in April of that little bounce and at some point this has to spring back the other way and the best time for the big spring is when you’ve been contracted the other way. There’s like a massive rubber band’s been pulled, then you should get a reasonable snap back that doesn’t mean that we’re out of the bear market. I don’t think that’s the case at all, especially not for cryptocurrencies. I still think we’re going down to these levels somewhere in the high 100s low 200-billion-dollar range for all the altcoins including the stable coins at this stage. So, I think this might be the opportunity to get at least a much more significant bounce than we have seen the entire way down. I think some people will agree with that because the biggest bounce we saw was 44 and old coins generally do more than that you can see here is only 43.
So, I think this is the opportunity that we’ll have more upside. We’re still close to that downside so we’re going to wait for some confirmation and, hopefully, start to see that move to the upside so basically I want to see some upside bigger reward to the downside risk and right up at these levels the downside risk was still too high compared to what I could see to the upside whereas I think that’s starting to flip now for the trader’s long-term investors different story doesn’t confuse those two. I think the long-term dollar-cost averaging stuff is still quite some way off. We can see that from history it has taken two and a bit years in this case from the previous cycle and then even on the way up you can wait for the breakout for the confirmation before you get in and sure, you miss the exact bottom.
This article is a transcription of a video made by Jasson Pizzino
Original video: https://youtu.be/xy8Q5eGtfIE
