As of press time, Bitcoin the world’s largest cryptocurrency, continued to dip throughout the weekend. As of press time, the coin has fallen to a record low of $38,298, the lowest since March 8, 2022. With Bitcoin at yet another multi-week low, anonymous independent Bitcoin analyst Plan B has given an important heads-up to investors via his twitter account. As he has stated on previous occasions Plan B declares that Bitcoin will not go lower than the 200-week moving average and the realized price. He goes on to say that bitcoin will reach at least a hundred thousand dollars before falling by 70% from its all-time high of $69,900. The former institutional investor also shares some other important updates.
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Let’s begin with Plan B’s first tweet. The tweet reads:
‘Blue (-70% from ATH) only comes after a proper bull market of $10, $1K, and $10K. Last bull market was a bull market for ants. 100K before blue IMO.’
He accompanies the tweet with this chart of Bitcoin showing the crypto assets realized price, 200 week moving average, and its price in U.S. dollars. The chart shows that Bitcoin has only entered the blue region, which represents a 70% drop from its all-time high, three times: in late 2011 and 2012, when the asset fell to $10, and in 2015 and 2019.
What Plan B points out in his tweet is that such price declines have only ever occurred after a proper bull market when there is a “blow off top.” He goes on to say that this did not happen during the bull market. Even if bitcoin loses 70% of its value, the crypto asset will not enter the blue range until it has dropped at least $100,000. From its all-time high, being the staunch Bitcoin bull that he is, will still be around $30,000. The plan B states that this is just a likely scenario or possibility, and the pseudonym analyst believes that once bitcoin reaches the $100,000 mark, it will keep shooting upward.
He states this in response to a tweet. Here is the exchange between the Twitter user and the independent Bitcoin analyst that
“I find it hard to believe if we hit 100K it would drop to the sub 30’s. Too many institutions are buying? Or will that just be a bigger reason for the big swings here?”
Plan B’s reply tweet is:
‘Same. I don’t think that will happen. More likely scenario: when we pass 100k we overshoot to 200k or 300k and then a dip.’
When another twitter user asks if Bitcoin will dip to $15,000, the analyst replies with:
‘That’s what the people who expect blue are thinking ($69K minus 70% = ≈15K) ..but there is no room for that, because 15K is below realized price and below the 200 week moving average (both ≈24K) ..not gonna happen IMO.’
This is not the first time that Plan B has been insisting that Bitcoin will not decline 70% or 80% below its all-time high of $69,000. In fact, he’s been saying this since late last year when it seemed like the Bitcoin bull market had ended. The reason for the assumption, as he has stated previously, is that Bitcoin has never fallen below the 200 week moving average, which is currently about $24,000. The plan shares similar sentiments in another tweet. Here is the analyst’s most recent tweet on the world’s largest cryptocurrency:
The chart that accompanies the tweet really puts into perspective how low the dip to $15,000 will look like. Technical analysts and investors that are calling it $15,000 are calling it based on the Bitcoin price history. However, we have to consider two very important factors.
- We can easily argue that the last bull market was not a complete or proper one. Plan B stated in his tweet that there was a bull market for ants in a recent interview with Will Clement, and on chain analyst Willy would discuss how a pullback caused by the carry trade prevented the move to a hundred thousand dollars. If we are going by the assets passed data, we still need that blow off top before the free fall to 70%-80% bellow ATH.
- The second factor we must consider is the ongoing positive developments in the Bitcoin market. We are at a tipping point where several multinational corporations and institutions are showing interest in entering the crypto market. According to data from KOI market cap, Bitcoin is still dominating the market by 41.3%.
We also have to consider the possibility of positive impactful regulation in the United States. If the U.S shows more acceptance of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, similar changes will occur in countries around the world, starting with other G7 countries. As experts like Kevin O’Leary have been saying, we also have to consider the trillions of dollars that could pour into the crypto market from sovereign wealth funds if the market is regulated. When we consider these factors, it is almost unthinkable to believe that Bitcoin will fall by 70% to $15,000. The current dip is just probably investors still reeling from the recent announcement of more interest rate hikes from Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. There is still a high probability that the bulls will recapture the market and take us back above $40,000.
We currently have people like Plan B, Kevin O’Leary, and Max Kaiser who believe that there is still time for Bitcoin to go massive this year. Then we have people like Gareth Soloway who are calling the sub 20’s. What do you think Bitcoin did for 24K or less? On the other hand, did we consolidate a little then move back above 40K for a hundred thousand dollars?
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Savvy Finance]
Original video: https://youtu.be/y7Q3S97MXm8 ]