We followed the crash on bitcoin and cryptos. Let’s take a look at the aftermath of what has happened over the last 18 to 24 hours for cryptocurrencies now. I want to have a look at the bottoms where we’re looking for the bottoms. How much further do we have to go and answer that question with some Maths. You can be updated with the cryptocurrency news and charts and not get screwed by the Opium out there. This is your Opium-free crypto and real estate cycles channel do that right now. Let’s crack on with the video fear and greed are obviously at some of the lowest levels in the history of this index. The lowest reading was five back in august of 2019 if we throw on the max here. We can see just where that came in, so it’s back here on this date and we are now sitting at sixes.
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We haven’t had sixes in some time this is pretty much the lowest area that the market’s ever been in for the fear and greed index and, of course, the best times to be buying are when the markets are extremely fearful and, of course, that doesn’t mean that you we’re going to get the exact bottom. But it is far better than buying when everyone is in a greed zone extreme greed or even in a neutral feeling. These extreme times are the best and there can be a further downside because we’re looking at mega multiples to the upside. We have to be ready to stomach a 50 loss from some of these prices because the upside can be five times eight times 12 times what we’re purchasing the price now and like we saw with the previous cycle for bitcoin that was just over a 20 x from the extreme fear that happened in 2018-2020. Then we got those multiples up to the 69 000 high now.
Now over to stable coins because we have quite a lot of numbers to do here. I’m going to get through all of this looking at a 30 loss on the total cryptocurrency market caps. We’re taking into account here bitcoin, ETH stables and, of course, altcoin. Looking at the entire market cap stable coins are sitting at about 155 billion. They really haven’t dropped in terms of a total market cap while the market has been falling you know we’re sitting around 180 and then it’s slowly falling while people have been taking profits out into fiat you know these things occur. I’m sure you’ve been taking some money out into fiat at least I hope because you just don’t know what’s going to happen with stable coins. We don’t know what’s going to happen with these lending platforms and, of course, your exchange as well which is why I like to spread my risk across different exchanges. Exchanges that have been around through bear markets are usually a good sign as well total market cap about 100 850 billion.
But if we take a look at the chart the current price is 804 so coin gecko gives us just a slightly different figure here but i’m going to use my charts use the 800 and 4 billion over here total market caps now. We’re doing all this to figure out the bottom. The bottom zone for Bitcoin Eth Altcoins. Bitcoin is about 353 billion, so for the round numbers. I’ll use about a 360 billion each about 116, so about 120. You’ll see that in just a moment why just make some numbers easier to give us that bottom. We’re looking for here an interesting fact about the total market cap half of the total crypto market cap. Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is in stable coins, so we know that the total market cap three is about 330 odd billion at the moment. We saw the low in at 320 and if we take this reading for all the stable coins about 155 that’s about half the amount is in stables while the other half is in altcoins. So, as this market continues to fall in value, so the total of three which is all of the altcoins including the stables. But not including bitcoin and eth then we will probably expect that the majority of the money is going to flow out of old coins which is why we talk here on the channel.
We don’t like old coins in bear markets, I don’t think there are any chosen ones in the altcoin market, not Cardano, not Solana, not Avax – nothing. None of them are chosen ones and if you’re looking for something to be the next big greatest thing. I’d probably go with something that is proven and stable and makes profits and is boring like Binance in terms of the coin. I’m not saying that you have to go and trade on there but in terms of the coin, it’s actually holding up and doing relatively well against its BTC value, its ETH value. I mean, of course, the US dollar is down but in terms of those it’s holding up relatively well. That would then be one of the major alt coins that would then hold up this particular reading here which is at a total of 320 billion. The overall market caps 800 billion total three 330 billion bitcoin is down. Now so the aftermath we’re now sitting at about 18 000 or so dollars if I take this off here. We can see we’re at 18 500 call it 600 and the low came in at 17 567 so basically 17 and a half thousand is the current low for the bitcoin price and on the weekly chart it’s not looking too bad we’ve got extreme volume here.
Obviously, we had extreme volume in may as well and the market has broken down from that point because we did not get any bounce that’s the confirming factor here the bounce was terribly weak and that’s that weekly bounce just there that was a tiny green bar up with a very low close. The confirmation was not there for a strong long position to break to take us to 34k and a break above 34k just wasn’t there. You can see that in the chart that’s what we talked about but now we’re getting some good volume again come through. We need to see a low in place and then obviously a good bounce to hold us above some resistance levels. To the downside some of these bottom areas that I’m looking at which then go into the cryptocurrency market caps to look for these lows we’re going to add this all together looking at about 16. Let’s move this over 16 200 and 12 500. These are just some levels looking back on the chart looking back in history where the market has found some support or some resistance.
Now we potentially look for the support at those levels so percentage-wise from our current price to that next level at about 16k 13 percent, to that next low is about 33 percent. If we look somewhere in the middle about that 25 I’m looking at about that 14k which are those previous highs. So, anywhere in this sort of zone here between the 12 and the 16 gives us a nice move down of about 25 as for ETH. It’s sitting at 970 after last night it went to 880 dollars eth to the downside can take on probably somewhere as low as the 400s maybe lower. But let’s just leave it at the 400s before people really start to themselves and we go between 500 and this level here of about 800 now. I’ve got this little zone picked out and I’ve talked about that many times. The reason being is this was the zone here in November and for bitcoin it was October, altcoins had it just a little bit later. It’s basically the zone after the market broke out of the accumulation. You had the little breakout here the retest of the highs and then it really didn’t come back and test any more price ranges from this zone. So, that’s why I’m eyeing that zone off as potential support for ETH for bitcoin for altcoins coming back to those prices prior to the breakouts to test those price zones. We need to test that structure to see if there is support at those prices.
We’ve broken down past the 200 weekly moving average and we know in the past eth has done that plenty of times I just did a rough guide here of the breakdown and I suspect it’s probably from this bar here or November 2018. We don’t have the 200 weeks of data there to do it, but you can sort of see. That’s where the market would have probably tracked and the time frame for the market to come out and break past it was 87 weeks. It stayed under this zone with a couple of minor breakouts lasting anywhere from about seven or a couple of weeks above that 200 weeks, overall, about 87 weeks. Just short of two years under this 200-week moving average, so if ETH does it and stays under here. It’s probably not going to come above the 200 weekly moving average for a period of time and we have to wait for bitcoin to also break above that. So, for ETH I think there’s plenty of time to be dollar-cost averaging into this a 90 drop would take it down to about that 500 level. This is our green zone the measuring tool right here and then into this zone is about 560 bucks or half-price from where we currently are about 500-550. That’s going to be roughly 87 or 86 percent from the all-time high, so these are some of the numbers that we’re trying to bring into play here for a low which is why I’m not buying all of my Ether, all of my Bitcoin at these levels. But I am chipping away at it because I think that they are.
I think the value is here for adding to my longer-term portfolios. We’re under some significant levels with some volume coming in and, of course, I can always be wrong and these levels don’t come in because a lot of people are looking at these levels. That doesn’t necessarily mean, they have to be there which is why we start to chip away at it and if they get to those levels then we go in a lot heavier so ETH to those lower prices potentially. We need to have some targets here and these targets start to also come together on the total cryptocurrency market cap. If we measure down from this level down to the top, this is that zone again around the December because the altcoins took off a little later that’s only about 40 down.
If we go to the top of this little zone here that’s about 52 down, so throw it on the log. You can see a little better that’s where it is there so now that we have all of these prices where the Bitcoin, Eth, and altcoins are currently sitting how much is in stable coins. How much comes off stable coins which we’ve seen in the past, hasn’t been that much, and how much further down can each of these cryptos go. We can go back to our figures here which you saw earlier and just understand what it is. That I’m doing here rather than just sort of take this at face value and see where the math is coming from here. Bitcoin is down about 25 percent of the current market cap, we saw about 360. I’m rounding it up, so 20-25 a quarter of 360 is 90 billion 270 that’s where bitcoins going if we break down about 25 percent and that would then give us a price of roughly which we can see here uh in at about the 13 or 14 000, 13 and a half to 14 thousand dollars. So, that’s why we have this price here. ETH could easily do another 50 off, unfortunately,ly is just much weaker the market cap is 120 billion. So, half of that 60 stables probably going to sit somewhere similar to that 150. We’ve been tracking them, we saw there at 160 a few weeks ago and now they’re only at 155, so not much is coming out of stables at the moment that can change so the total for all of these. If I`ve done my maths right 330 and 150 is 480. The current alt market cap is at 160 billion because we’re minusing the stable coins, so roughly speaking, we are total 3 330 take give or take a little there. We’re looking at 150 of that I’m giving a round number here about 160 and then taking 50 off that. That’s about 80 billion and I think all coins could probably do a lot more. But let’s go with this for 50 off that gives us an alt of 80 billion, so if we add these two together 480 and the 80 billion left in alt coins not including stable coins because we’ve already included stable coins here alts stable coins 560 is about thirty percent down from where we currently are. So, that’s how we get to that and it’s not thirty percent on bitcoin, thirty percent one thirty percent on alts.
This article is a transcription of a video made by Jasson Pizzino
Original video:https://youtu.be/SbjG8UR7sow
