“So this is the crazy thing about it. When you were at $65,000, what did we hear right? We heard from the influencers, the talking heads, everyone was saying, “Oh it’s going to be $100,000 by the end of November 2021, then $250k, then $500k.’ It was ridiculous on that side. You’re starting to hear the opposite. Everyone’s saying, “Oh, it’s a scam. It’s going to go to zero.” Those are actually contrarian views that, as an investor, you need to separate from your own emotions. Meaning, the more I hear that, the more I believe that we are getting closer to a bottom.’ – Gareth Soloway.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $26,688, a 3% increase over the last seven days but a 9% decrease over the last 24 hours. Despite SEC chairman Gary Gensler’s making headline news by calling bitcoin a commodity and explicitly stating that he will not name any other coins, which all but says other cryptocurrencies are securities. We are still in a bear market, with many expert analysts and pundits predicting choppy trading for the foreseeable future.
In an interview of a Stansberry Research, Garrett Soloway, technical analyst and investor, warned listeners not to get too excited if we see an update. Gareth explained that the charts are showing an uptick, but soon after we can expect a sharp decline, possibly retracing to the $12,000 range. But before we listen to Mr. Soloway, we want to give a quick shout out to Jet-Bot. It is a trading platform that provide 3 days trial access. You can get free signup rewards and begin to earn money – from 200% up to 2,000% APY. People should rest, robots should earn money.
‘I mean, we are holding the 1905 2017 high. Here we can see that if we zoom all the way back to 2017, we briefly pierced it, which is very normal because there’s a lot of stops that are put there by investors, so there’s this kind of mentality that people were buying just above $20,000. So, if it falls below psychologically, a lot of them will panic and flee, and the price will usually recover. In the very near term, I’m in the camp that we still have a little bit more upside to go, so I could see us bouncing back to $25k or so, maybe even $28k.
I want to caveat that by saying that this is still a bear market. This is still an ice age like you referred to it as the charts are still pointing to overall further downside. Um, you’re right about a lot of the issues that are occurring; the Celsius news, the Terra Luna collapse, all of those are very much like the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000. I think that’s what crypto is going through right now, and if there’s one thing I remember from that period, which was the very start of my career, is that it didn’t end with just a few blow-ups. You have to see more. You have to see more downside there. You have to get to a point where investors are ready to throw their hands up in despair. While many investors are still hurting, the average investor, I believe, is between $50,000 and $60,000, and they’re not quite ready to give up just yet. I know that sounds horrible, but that’s how market bottoms are put in and that is ultimately what I think is going on here.
I do have a target that remains right around $12,000. So I fine-tuned it a little bit. The $12,000 level gives us a measured move, so if you take a look here and this is kind of just some cool technical analysis:
If you take this move down right here right, from this high down, which was a straight shot, then you had this kind of consolidation pattern. Then if you take the high, that’s the exact distance from here to where the bottom should be put in.
In addition, bitcoin during its winters its past bear markets corrects 80 to 85 percent. If you correct that in this period, you get 12 000-ish give or take a lot of confluence of levels at around 12 000-ish where my next target is.
This is the key, when we were below $20 000 you saw so much bear market kind of sentiment and the markets tend to wait and kind of lure people back in.
So even in this mid-level area, when we were back to these highs of $47,000 – $48,000, I was hearing, “Oh, we’re going right back to all-time highs.” You know, this is the big breakout, this is all that stuff, and the markets still need to do that here.” In my opinion, if they have to move up, you have to start getting that sentiment of hope back and the markets are evil like that, not literally evil, but they like to get people to start to believe again and then they crush their dreams. That’s just the way markets work.
So this is where it gets even more intriguing with how a pro trader or pro investor handles it. So as much as I am a believer that there’s a decent chance of going to $12,000, maybe even lower, I don’t know for sure, there’s also a chance it doesn’t get there. So what I have done here is I basically selected and I said to myself how much money I am willing to invest in bitcoin in this bear market, when it gets down to this area or below.
I took that amount, let’s just say a million dollars, and I divided it into six categories, six even amounts, and when we were at $19,000, I took my first one-sixth and I bought bitcoin there. What I’m going to do is every two and a half to three thousand dollars down, I’m going to buy another one-sixth position, eventually accumulating a full six-sixth position.
So the idea is that I’ve been around the block enough that I understand that sometimes downside targets don’t get achieved and sometimes they overshoot, so I don’t try to pick the exact bottom once we get close. I’ve just started dollar cost averaging in, knowing that my long-term view on bitcoin remains extremely bullish. $65k will be a low target for when this thing takes off in the next cycle.’
What do you think of Garrett’s analysis? Do you think Bitcoin will fall below $12,000?
Another crypto winter has arrived. In response, most of the headlines suggest such. Coinbase announced that they are slashing 18% of their workforce, while Australian crypto firm Banxa announced they’re cutting their staff by 30%, citing another crypto winter.
In other bearish news, decrypt.com reported $453 million in outflows from bitcoin funds last week, while funds shorting bitcoin saw a $15 million inflow.
That’s all we have for today.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Only The Savvy]
Original video: https://youtu.be/BmrqNyGk1aA ]