Today we are going to be going through exactly what’s happening in this market right now. We are a little bit red overall, but I want to discuss reasons why the market bottom may have already hit and reasons why we may see more blood, so we’re going to look at both sides of the coin.
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If we look at the bitcoin chart, we can see that we are going up a little bit. This is the monthly chart here, and we’re having a green month right now. We’re getting to the end of July, so hopefully we can close out a green month.
I wanted to remind you that there were many green months in the bear market in 2018. But an interesting thing to take note of was that since the high here, it was about one year until we saw an actual 300% move, so if we were to count this, we’re still about two or three months out of a potential 300% move that could happen if something like the past happened. Not all hope is lost. If we were to count from one high and pretend that this second pump was similar to the next pump, we could actually be seeing that move come in right now, which would actually be normal for a bear market.
With that said, this could just be a bear market rally now. A bear market rally refers to a sharp short-term rebound in the share price amid a longer-term bear market decline. Bear market rallies are treacherous for investors who have mistakenly come to believe that they mark the end of an extended downturn.
The reason why is that, basically, new investors or old investors who are otherwise out start buying again, thinking that the bottom is in. They buy, buy, buy. Then again, what happens is a potential trapdoor moment like we’ve been seeing opens again like we saw right here:
So we can see that we had a similar rally here as well. We went sideways and then we had a trapdoor moment, so heading upwards now will mean that new investors come in, they get excited and then another trapdoor could open up, which means that more people will be at a loss, which means more people will then be selling on the way down. If this rally hadn’t happened, there wouldn’t be as many sellers on the way down, which means we may not have as violent of a drop, but only slightly if we get a pump here and then we drop. The drop will be even more violent.
With that said, what I’m seeing on this chart here is we have had a little rejection here around the $24,300 mark that played in interestingly right around here back at the start of the old ball run, so it’s normal to see that that would be a line of resistance.
We have met that resistance here. What would be fantastic is if we came around to these types of regions at the $22,000 mark and then bounced upwards, putting in a higher low and continuing upwards. I would then see the next line of resistance there at the $25,000, and even as high as $28,000.
If we turn bullish again, I’ll only be bullish again if we break through this region and come out over; only then will I be bullish about the market again.
Another leading indicator for the crypto trading bull and bear markets is the DXY. The US dollar currency index. What we can see here is these lines in the circle here in 2017 and here again in 2020 when the DXY is trending downwards. These are bull markets for bitcoin.
Now we can see the exact opposite happening right here. This is a bear market for bitcoin, but what we’re seeing is potentially a topping moment. Here you can see that we are currently this week printing a red candle. Obviously, we’ve had red candles on the way up. This could be just a minor pullback in what is otherwise an uptrend. If this continues to trend upwards, we are most likely going to stay in a bear market for bitcoin and, in turn, cryptocurrency.
So with that idea, let’s first of all look at reasons why we are going to stay in this bear market. This is the downward trend that I personally see. First of all, we got the Google trends for bitcoin. This is a YouTube search. So, as you can see here, we are extremely low, but we haven’t seen this retail disinterest that we saw here.
Do you see how it’s a sharp decline? This stayed boring for ages. We had a little pump here and then it stayed boring for a long time until we saw the next leg up. You can see here that we really haven’t seen up until this point that we’re in right now. This steep decline, which does point out in my mind that there is still quite a lot of retail that is invested now, is also coming from a crypto youtuber. I can also see this in my analytics. We still have days like yesterday and a few days ago where the market gets excited again and then the views creep up. This is something that you wouldn’t expect to happen in a fully fledged bear market or a crypto winter. This points me in the direction of thinking that potentially we have not hit the bottom yet.
Moving on, let’s talk about the bottom being in and some more positive outlook on the market, so bitcoin holders in accumulation mode suggest a speedy recovery from the Glassnode. New data from Glassnode suggests that bitcoin is possibly forming its cyclical bottom around the critical $20,000 level, so Glassnode’s weekly report predicts that the primary cryptocurrency is forming a genuine bottom at its current realized value of around $22,000. In the meantime, on-chain data has shown that the unrealized loss of bitcoin holders has reached a level in history that could suggest the bloodbath is nearing its end. That’s one good outlook on the market.
We also do have an interesting piece of news here. This came out a few hours ago. Tesla sold 936 million dollars’ worth of bitcoin, which was 75% of its holdings. The fact that Tesla bought bitcoin was a huge catalyst for the market back a few years ago, and it is an absolutely massive catalyst now. We heard about this within the last 24 hours. Interestingly, it’s done absolutely nothing to the price. Maybe we’re getting some delayed reaction here, but it only had about a 1-2% reaction on the market. The market continued to trend upwards, only now having that slight pullback where we may very well just be retesting these regions.
The reason why I put this in this section is that this coming out just a few weeks ago would have absolutely shaken the market and may have been the reason for the drop, but it hasn’t even affected the market, which could mean that the majority of people who were going to sell have already sold. It’s an interesting way to look at it. Not guaranteed, but certainly intriguing.
With that said, Elon Musk said that they will resume bitcoin payments when mining is more than 50% sustainable. The bitcoin mining council found that bitcoin mining has a 59.5% sustainable energy mix. This could lead to Tesla actually saying yes to bitcoin payments once again very soon, which I do think would be a massive catalyst. I would rather that Elon Musk didn’t have too much of a sway over the market, but as we know, of course, he does, and this would definitely be beneficial for the market. In my opinion if we are staying in this bullish momentum that we’re in right now. This is exciting stuff for the market.
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Conor Kenny]
[Original video: https://youtu.be/M2Q_cwtnc-Q]