‘The problem with catch-up is that they’re going to go too far and they’re going to push us into recession again. I think by the end of 2022 to early 2023, we’re probably talking about a recession.’ – Gareth Soloway.
As a guest on the Jay Martin’s show, Gareth Soloway, CEO of InTheMoneyStocks.com, gave a pessimistic view of what he sees coming with crypto. Soloway has echoed the sentiment of many that crypto is eerily similar to the dot-com bubble, where greed, lack of utility, and an overflow of money caused one of the biggest bubbles in recent history. Despite being a long-term believer in crypto, Gareth sees this playing out like the dot-com bubble, calling for 90% of the coins to get wiped out.
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Soloway has stated repeatedly that he is a long-term supporter of bitcoin but is not convinced of many other coins. As a swing trader, however, Gareth sees opportunities for short-term gains, but long-term he’s not sure how many of these coins will last.
‘I’m even in the camp that we haven’t even seen all the capitulation in crypto trading yet. Now again, my early career was trading through the dot-com. That was when I first started to notice the dot-com similarity. This is why bubbles are very similar: we, as humans, are trading the right and we are ruled by the same emotions, so in every bubble there’s max greed. Everyone thinks it’s so easy. You can just throw that dart at that board and just make so much money. Everyone’s in a bubble, you know, everyone’s making money.
The problem is that bubbles collapse, and in the dot-com era we saw a ton of dot coms go out of business and we saw many get bought out for pennies on the dollar, but we’re just starting to see that in crypto right now. I think Voyager filed for bankruptcy. Celsius is having issues. We saw the Terra Luna collapse, so you’re starting to see that, but you haven’t achieved that wipeout where you’re going to see let’s say 90% of all cryptocurrencies go to zero. They think that’s what has to happen.
If you look at the dot-com bubble, when we merged, we emerged out of that. You basically had a handful of dot-coms; you have Amazon. You had a few other ones out there that survived. Everything else either got bought out or essentially went to zero and went into bankruptcy. I think we’re due for a cryptocurrency bounce here. I think we’ll get up to about $25,000, maybe $28,000. But I do think you have more downside in crypto, at least to $12,000. We need to see people just being like, “Oh my goodness, crypto’s done’.
When people like, literally give up. I mean, this happened in 2018 as well. After the 2017 high, it was like this: no one wanted to talk about crypto. It was like a fight club. You just didn’t talk about it right and that was the key when the bottom was in. We haven’t got to that point yet in crypto.
So with the markets, let me pivot because I know you asked me about the markets. The markets are in that same position. We’ve seen a drop, but you haven’t even got close to capitulation right now. Just to show my chart of the Nasdaq here or the QQQ, I think we have to go down to the pre-COVIDed highs.
I mean, to me the pre-COVIDed highs are even just going there. Even if we don’t go into a recession, meaning that the Fed, if they’re really taking out all the liquidity that they put in during the COVID craziness of just printing and printing trillions of dollars. Well, at the very least, if they’re removing that, we have to go back to that pivot point.
If we start going into a recession, then you start looking at something like a trend line like this, which would be the longer trend going back to about 2015. Both of these, by the way, are quite a bit lower. I mean, we’re talking about 15% below. This would be about 20% lower at that point or maybe even a little bit more. I think that the equity markets still have a long way to go. We haven’t even seen an earnings recession yet where earnings start to drop versus still going higher. The consumer is certainly pulling back. Even after the reopening we’re seeing in the US here, consumers are being much more careful.
I think again that equity markets still have more downside and, after a bounce, crypto will likely as well, so the main thing is This is what I have currently, which I’m looking at in the long term. I have 5% of my net worth in gold and usually most of it physical gold to be honest, and I look at that like insurance, where if I woke up tomorrow and the grid was down, the banks were closed, and I couldn’t get money out of an ATM, well at least I got some gold, right? That’s important to think about because it’s kind of your insurance policy against an all-out collapse of the system.‘
Having said that, I intend to hold other investments in silver and other metals for the foreseeable future. I believe that we are starting to accumulate some platinum in some of these metals where I believe that inflation is going to be higher than 2% for the longer term. I think that’s really going to be beneficial.
So those are my main ones. I do plan on picking up bitcoin and, in fact, at $19.000. And I started my beginning huddle position, to use that term, where I basically allocated a percentage of my net worth the same thing for bitcoin. I bought 1/6 of what I wanted to accumulate at $19k. Then basically every two to three thousand lower, I’ll buy another one, so up to 5 additional entries. Um, that is dollar-cost averaging. It doesn’t guarantee a winning trade. At least I’m not guessing at a particular low and staking the whole entire amount on that low.’
What do you think of Garrett’s thoughts here? Do you see 90% of the coins getting wiped out?
[This article is a transcription of a video made by Only The SAVVY]
[Original video: https://youtu.be/JHv_F0KMjgg]
